TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911116115116––
Artur Zmijewski
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:54 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeArtur Zmijewski to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKacper Kwiatkowski above · Artur Zmijewski below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 70 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Artur Zmijewski at 59.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Kacper Kwiatkowski 2–2 Artur Zmijewski Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:54What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Zmijewski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kwiatkowski 1438 vs Zmijewski 1489
Zmijewski
Wrong
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwiatkowski 60% vs Zmijewski 80%
Zmijewski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwiatkowski 40% vs Zmijewski 70%
Zmijewski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwiatkowski +1 · Zmijewski +3
Zmijewski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Zmijewski) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zmijewski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwiatkowski 2.20 / Zmijewski 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Zmijewski)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13165481
Kwiatkowski2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 67 of 181
Down 0–1, comes back22% 23 of 107
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 67
Zmijewski1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 65 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it100% 40 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it89% 49 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKwiatkowski2wins
AwayZmijewski2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKwiatkowski66.7%2 of 3
AwayZmijewskin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kwiatkowski3Zmijewski1n = 4Kwiatkowski took 3 of 4
S2Kwiatkowski2Zmijewski2n = 4split evenly
S3Kwiatkowski1Zmijewski3n = 4Zmijewski took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricKwiatkowskiZmijewskiK − ZBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match32.036.5−4.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwiatkowskiZmijewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime115 / 265 vs 92 / 15343.4%60.1%115 / 265 vs 92 / 153Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZmijewskiKwiatkowski 2.20/Zmijewski 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Zmijewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kwiatkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 23 · 22:10K. Kwiatkowski341112113A. Zmijewski2571080
WAug 23 · 19:40K. Kwiatkowski3711112133A. Zmijewski376911111
LAug 20 · 01:25K. Kwiatkowski42113111162A. Zmijewski51811138113
LAug 19 · 19:20K. Kwiatkowski151680A. Zmijewski331111113
K. Kwiatkowski10
WSep 21 · 17:20K. Kwiatkowski2.50111164123J. Zelezik1.50941111102LSep 21 · 16:15M. Lewczuk2.10111164123K. Kwiatkowski1.67661111102WSep 21 · 15:25K. Kwiatkowski1.57111116113M. Karpiuk2.25791881WSep 18 · 04:20K. Kwiatkowski1.611311113J. Michalik2.2011370LSep 18 · 03:05K. Kwiatkowski1.6574120A. Krezel2.101111143WSep 18 · 01:55K. Kwiatkowski1.901111113J. Zelezik1.809670LSep 18 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk1.541111116113K. Kwiatkowski2.2313551192LSep 17 · 23:55K. Kwiatkowski1.50139118102A. Staniczek2.401111811123LSep 17 · 22:20K. Kwiatkowski2.751011461D. Molenda1.3712811113LSep 17 · 21:05K. Kwiatkowski1.751171110142A. Krezel1.90911812163
A. Zmijewski10
WSep 21 · 17:45M. Lewczuk2.10111661A. Zmijewski1.6711911113WSep 21 · 16:55A. Zmijewski1.22101114113M. Karpiuk4.001241251WSep 21 · 15:50A. Zmijewski1.531111113M. Baran2.388730LSep 21 · 02:10A. Zmijewski1.405128111J. Skorupa2.75111011133WSep 21 · 24:35K. Rybak9.007190A. Zmijewski1.041111113LSep 20 · 23:45Z. Nocun2.25127115113A. Zmijewski1.57101181172WSep 20 · 22:55A. Zmijewski1.3611136173G. Mucha3.0071111151LSep 20 · 21:45A. Zmijewski2.7511771342M. Guzik1.407111111113WSep 20 · 20:05A. Zmijewski1.501111123J. Skorupa2.5067100WSep 20 · 18:30K. Rybak5.003640A. Zmijewski1.141111113
Upcoming Matches
K. Kwiatkowski
Sep 21 · 19:40K. Kwiatkowski1.53M. Baran2.38—Sep 21 · 21:20K. Kwiatkowski1.57M. Karpiuk2.25—Sep 21 · 22:10K. Kwiatkowski1.53M. Baran2.38—Sep 21 · 23:10K. Kwiatkowski2.50J. Zelezik1.50—Sep 22 · 24:10K. Kwiatkowski2.25A. Zmijewski1.57—Sep 22 · 01:10K. Kwiatkowski1.73M. Lewczuk2.00—Sep 22 · 17:55K. Kwiatkowski—M. Karpiuk——Sep 22 · 18:45K. Kwiatkowski—M. Brunner——Sep 22 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski—M. Baran——Sep 22 · 21:05K. Kwiatkowski—K. Delikatny——
A. Zmijewski
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