TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Mateusz Baran
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711611811––––
Mateusz Karpiuk
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:18 and never touched — 63.0% is still 63.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Karpiuk to win
63.0%
63.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Baran above · Mateusz Karpiuk below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 54 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Mateusz Karpiuk at 63.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Baran 2–4 Mateusz Karpiuk Mateusz Baran has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:18What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Baran
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Karpiuk
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baran 1379 vs Karpiuk 1283
Baran
Wrong
both rated, 96 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baran 40% vs Karpiuk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baran 40% vs Karpiuk 60%
Karpiuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baran +1 · Karpiuk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Baran) · live re-read · sealed at 37% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baran form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaran 1.67 / Karpiuk 2.10
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Baran)-0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13168364
Baran1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 46 of 74
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it73% 27 of 37
Karpiuk2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 58 of 154
Down 0–1, comes back22% 19 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeBaran2wins
AwayKarpiuk4wins
1 of 6 to a deciderKarpiuk leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaran50%2 of 4
AwayKarpiukn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baran4Karpiuk2n = 6Baran took 4 of 6
S2Baran0Karpiuk6n = 6Karpiuk took 6 of 6
S3Baran2Karpiuk4n = 6Karpiuk took 4 of 6
S4Baran2Karpiuk3n = 5Karpiuk took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away350%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricBaranKarpiukB − KBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match34.539.2−4.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaranKarpiukBasisWin rate · lifetime82 / 153 vs 129 / 29653.6%43.6%82 / 153 vs 129 / 296Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.738.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaranBaran 1.67/Karpiuk 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.4%
Baran · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Karpiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 16 · 03:55M. Baran238960M. Karpiuk331111113
WSep 15 · 21:55M. Baran3811511113M. Karpiuk34911771
WAug 9 · 21:20M. Baran46116711113M. Karpiuk4361111872
LAug 9 · 15:25M. Baran35138951M. Karpiuk44111111113
LJul 21 · 01:50M. Baran32961161M. Karpiuk4211119113
LJul 20 · 20:05M. Baran33117691M. Karpiuk3961111113
M. Baran10
WSep 21 · 16:35M. Baran2.381111113J. Zelezik1.532690LSep 21 · 15:50A. Zmijewski1.531111113M. Baran2.388730LSep 18 · 02:35M. Baran1.91961281K. Gudzik1.80111110113LSep 18 · 01:00M. Baran3.751010111252M. Guzik1.251212710113WSep 17 · 23:45M. Baran2.20117116113Z. Nocun1.6171171152LSep 17 · 22:10M. Baran1.531249121M. Brunner2.38101111143WSep 17 · 21:00M. Baran1.8311616113G. Mucha1.833111491WSep 17 · 19:40M. Brunner2.2511891162M. Baran1.57811117113LSep 17 · 18:55M. Guzik1.2511711113M. Baran3.75611771LSep 17 · 18:10M. Baran3.25515971K. Gudzik1.33111311113
M. Karpiuk10
LSep 21 · 16:55A. Zmijewski1.22101114113M. Karpiuk4.001241251LSep 21 · 15:25K. Kwiatkowski1.57111116113M. Karpiuk2.25791881WSep 16 · 05:05K. Rybak2.27119961M. Karpiuk1.5791111113WSep 16 · 03:55M. Karpiuk1.851111113M. Baran1.858960LSep 16 · 02:45M. Brunner1.8311311113M. Karpiuk1.81611561WSep 16 · 01:30J. Skorupa1.7111127682M. Karpiuk2.009101111113WSep 15 · 23:55J. Michalik1.621147111M. Karpiuk2.0791111133WSep 15 · 23:05M. Brunner1.838650M. Karpiuk1.811111113LSep 15 · 21:55M. Karpiuk2.20911771M. Baran1.6111511113WSep 15 · 20:45P. Gesiarz1.6511713882M. Karpiuk2.055111111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Baran
Sep 21 · 19:40M. Baran2.38K. Kwiatkowski1.53—Sep 21 · 21:00M. Baran2.38J. Zelezik1.53—Sep 21 · 22:10M. Baran2.38K. Kwiatkowski1.53—Sep 21 · 23:30M. Baran2.75A. Zmijewski1.40—Sep 22 · 24:30M. Baran2.00M. Lewczuk1.73—Sep 22 · 01:50M. Baran1.73M. Karpiuk2.00—Sep 22 · 17:30M. Baran—M. Brunner——Sep 22 · 19:10M. Baran—P. Gesiarz——Sep 22 · 19:55M. Baran—K. Kwiatkowski——Sep 22 · 21:55M. Baran—M. Karpiuk——
M. Karpiuk
Sep 21 · 19:20M. Karpiuk3.25J. Zelezik1.33—Sep 21 · 20:30M. Karpiuk2.75M. Lewczuk1.40—Sep 21 · 21:20M. Karpiuk2.25K. Kwiatkowski1.57—Sep 21 · 22:50M. Karpiuk3.75A. Zmijewski1.25—Sep 21 · 23:50M. Karpiuk2.75M. Lewczuk1.40—Sep 22 · 24:50M. Karpiuk3.25J. Zelezik1.33—Sep 22 · 01:50M. Karpiuk2.00M. Baran1.73—Sep 22 · 17:55M. Karpiuk—K. Kwiatkowski——Sep 22 · 19:30M. Karpiuk—K. Delikatny——Sep 22 · 20:45M. Karpiuk—P. Gesiarz——
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