TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Patrik Jokiel
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611117119511115
Jiri Vanous
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePatrik Jokiel to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPatrik Jokiel above · Jiri Vanous below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 87 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Patrik Jokiel at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Jokiel 6–8 Jiri Vanous Patrik Jokiel has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Jokiel beat Vanous 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:42What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Vanous
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-8 in 14
Vanous
Wrong
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jokiel 1290 vs Vanous 1304
Vanous
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jokiel 60% vs Vanous 20%
Jokiel
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jokiel 30% vs Vanous 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jokiel -1 · Vanous -3
Vanous
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Vanous) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vanous form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJokiel 2.25 / Vanous 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Vanous)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13166502
Jokiel2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 73 of 157
Down 0–1, comes back36% 26 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Vanous1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 27 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it77% 23 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJokiel5wins
AwayVanous5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJokiel60%3 of 5
AwayVanous60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jokiel5Vanous5n = 10split evenly
S2Jokiel4Vanous6n = 10Vanous took 6 of 10
S3Jokiel3Vanous7n = 10Vanous took 7 of 10
S4Jokiel4Vanous3n = 7Jokiel took 4 of 7
S5Jokiel3Vanous2n = 5Jokiel took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricJokielVanousJ − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.339.9−1.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJokielVanousBasisWin rate · lifetime206 / 452 vs 133 / 30545.6%43.6%206 / 452 vs 133 / 305Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.336.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VanousJokiel 2.25/Vanous 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.7%
Vanous · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jokiel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 18:40P. Jokiel3631111113J. Vanous28115571
LSep 16 · 20:34P. Jokiel177370J. Vanous331111113
LSep 16 · 20:10P. Jokiel2010370J. Vanous341211113
LAug 5 · 19:10P. Jokiel217950J. Vanous331111113
LMay 22 · 19:15P. Jokiel48111211682J. Vanous549101311113
WMar 17 · 18:45P. Jokiel55149911123J. Vanous511211117102
WMar 6 · 20:10P. Jokiel4312119113J. Vanous281011161
LMar 2 · 18:45P. Jokiel4711911882J. Vanous49711911113
WFeb 8 · 15:15P. Jokiel49111197113J. Vanous4789111182
WFeb 3 · 21:15P. Jokiel47951111113J. Vanous4211118842
P. Jokiel10
LSep 20 · 20:10P. Jokiel1.8011571132R. Benesz1.91911118113WSep 20 · 18:40J. Vanous1.50115571P. Jokiel2.5031111113LSep 20 · 18:10T. Ogrocki1.53911511113P. Jokiel2.3811511772WSep 20 · 16:44A. Drozd1.83116122112P. Jokiel1.836111011133WSep 20 · 16:10O. Kus1.731159101P. Jokiel2.0061111123LSep 20 · 15:10P. Jokiel2.381011721V. Reska1.5312511113LSep 20 · 13:40A. Drozd1.40514119113P. Jokiel2.75111291132LSep 17 · 20:40M. Dolezal1.8011811113P. Jokiel1.91311431LSep 17 · 19:40P. Jokiel2.107101151T. Ogrocki1.6711127113LSep 17 · 18:40P. Jokiel1.61751131R. Benesz2.2011119113
J. Vanous10
LSep 20 · 19:40J. Vanous1.9191111472T. Ogrocki1.80117911113LSep 20 · 18:40J. Vanous1.50115571P. Jokiel2.5031111113LSep 20 · 17:40J. Vanous1.61781181R. Benesz2.2011114113WSep 19 · 20:45O. Skvor1.53111131192J. Vanous2.38135115113LSep 19 · 20:15O. Skvor1.53411711113J. Vanous2.3811711752LSep 19 · 19:15J. Vanous2.0011611862M. Janik1.73911911113LSep 19 · 17:45K. Zeman1.531112113J. Vanous2.3861090WSep 16 · 20:34J. Vanous1.801111113P. Jokiel1.917370WSep 16 · 20:10P. Jokiel1.8010370J. Vanous1.911211113LSep 16 · 19:10J. Vanous1.8064110O. Kus1.911111133
Upcoming Matches
P. Jokiel
J. Vanous
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.