TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Tomas Ogrocki
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911115511117117
Patrik Jokiel
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:42 and never touched — 73.6% is still 73.6%
Graded at full timeTomas Ogrocki to win
73.6%
73.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Ogrocki above · Patrik Jokiel below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 88 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Tomas Ogrocki at 73.6%
88 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Ogrocki 26–12 Patrik Jokiel Patrik Jokiel has won 12 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:42What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Ogrocki
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-12 in 38
Ogrocki
Correct
gap of 14 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ogrocki 1378 vs Jokiel 1296
Ogrocki
Correct
both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ogrocki 60% vs Jokiel 40%
Ogrocki
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ogrocki 60% vs Jokiel 20%
Ogrocki
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ogrocki +1 · Jokiel +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Ogrocki) · live re-read · sealed at 74% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOgrocki 1.53 / Jokiel 2.38
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Ogrocki)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13163265
Ogrocki1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 19)
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite58% won 57 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it90% 27 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it70% 39 of 56
Jokiel2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog47% won 73 of 157
Down 0–1, comes back36% 26 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOgrocki7wins
AwayJokiel3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderOgrocki leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOgrocki75%6 of 8
AwayJokieln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ogrocki8Jokiel2n = 10Ogrocki took 8 of 10
S2Ogrocki4Jokiel6n = 10Jokiel took 6 of 10
S3Ogrocki4Jokiel6n = 10Jokiel took 6 of 10
S4Ogrocki6Jokiel2n = 8Ogrocki took 6 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOgrockiJokielO − JBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.937.1+1.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOgrockiJokielBasisWin rate · lifetime225 / 483 vs 205 / 44946.6%45.7%225 / 483 vs 205 / 449Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OgrockiOgrocki 1.53/Jokiel 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.8%
Ogrocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ogrocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 19:40T. Ogrocki4111127113P. Jokiel337101151
WSep 11 · 18:40T. Ogrocki44111111113P. Jokiel38813891
WSep 9 · 17:15T. Ogrocki4312128113P. Jokiel3610101151
WSep 9 · 15:10T. Ogrocki3911116113P. Jokiel36791191
LSep 5 · 12:10T. Ogrocki35135891P. Jokiel44111111113
LAug 31 · 19:10T. Ogrocki411281291P. Jokiel46101114113
WAug 30 · 16:38T. Ogrocki331111113P. Jokiel238780
LAug 30 · 16:15T. Ogrocki219390P. Jokiel331111113
WAug 29 · 10:40T. Ogrocki49881111113P. Jokiel4711117992
WAug 19 · 15:40T. Ogrocki4311711143P. Jokiel356116121
T. Ogrocki10
WSep 20 · 19:40J. Vanous1.9191111472T. Ogrocki1.80117911113WSep 20 · 19:10R. Benesz2.388590T. Ogrocki1.531111113WSep 19 · 16:45O. Skvor2.105930T. Ogrocki1.671111113LSep 19 · 16:15O. Skvor1.5391111113T. Ogrocki2.38119951WSep 19 · 15:15T. Ogrocki1.83661111113M. Janik1.8311117772LSep 19 · 13:45A. Drozd1.57114116143T. Ogrocki2.25511911122WSep 17 · 21:10R. Benesz2.102490T. Ogrocki1.671111113WSep 17 · 19:40P. Jokiel2.107101151T. Ogrocki1.6711127113WSep 17 · 19:10M. Dolezal2.10912991T. Ogrocki1.67111011113LSep 17 · 18:10T. Ogrocki1.531131091R. Benesz2.3871112113
P. Jokiel10
WSep 20 · 18:40J. Vanous1.50115571P. Jokiel2.5031111113WSep 20 · 16:44A. Drozd1.83116122112P. Jokiel1.836111011133WSep 20 · 16:10O. Kus1.731159101P. Jokiel2.0061111123LSep 20 · 15:10P. Jokiel2.381011721V. Reska1.5312511113LSep 20 · 13:40A. Drozd1.40514119113P. Jokiel2.75111291132LSep 17 · 20:40M. Dolezal1.8011811113P. Jokiel1.91311431LSep 17 · 19:40P. Jokiel2.107101151T. Ogrocki1.6711127113LSep 17 · 18:40P. Jokiel1.61751131R. Benesz2.2011119113LSep 17 · 17:40P. Jokiel1.73381261M. Dolezal2.00111110113LSep 17 · 08:45J. Matus1.8011811113P. Jokiel1.91411761
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