TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Jiri Vanous
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911117119411711
Tomas Ogrocki
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:14 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Ogrocki to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Vanous above · Tomas Ogrocki below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 91 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Tomas Ogrocki at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Vanous 9–20 Tomas Ogrocki Jiri Vanous has won 9 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:14What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Ogrocki
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-20 in 29
Ogrocki
Correct
gap of 11 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vanous 1312 vs Ogrocki 1397
Ogrocki
Correct
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vanous 20% vs Ogrocki 80%
Ogrocki
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vanous 30% vs Ogrocki 70%
Ogrocki
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vanous -2 · Ogrocki +3
Ogrocki
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ogrocki)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ogrocki form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVanous 1.91 / Ogrocki 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Ogrocki)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13164368
Vanous1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 46 of 113
Down 0–1, comes back21% 12 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 36
Ogrocki1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 57 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it90% 27 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it70% 39 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVanous6wins
AwayOgrocki4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVanous leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVanous100%3 of 3
AwayOgrocki57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vanous3Ogrocki7n = 10Ogrocki took 7 of 10
S2Vanous7Ogrocki3n = 10Vanous took 7 of 10
S3Vanous5Ogrocki5n = 10split evenly
S4Vanous5Ogrocki4n = 9Vanous took 5 of 9
S5Vanous3Ogrocki1n = 4Vanous took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVanousOgrockiV − OBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.339.1+3.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVanousOgrockiBasisWin rate · lifetime133 / 304 vs 227 / 48543.8%46.8%133 / 304 vs 227 / 485Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OgrockiVanous 1.91/Ogrocki 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Ogrocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Ogrocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 20:44J. Vanous33851191T. Ogrocki3811115113
WSep 10 · 20:10J. Vanous44831111113T. Ogrocki3911114942
WAug 5 · 20:43J. Vanous48151111113T. Ogrocki401351391
LAug 5 · 20:10J. Vanous356111081T. Ogrocki3911512113
LJul 24 · 20:50J. Vanous357135101T. Ogrocki45111111123
WJul 24 · 19:15J. Vanous6011121115113T. Ogrocki53614131372
WJul 16 · 20:33J. Vanous4291111113T. Ogrocki33118861
LJul 16 · 19:10J. Vanous4251171182T. Ogrocki44113118113
WJul 1 · 21:08J. Vanous331111113T. Ogrocki171970
WJul 1 · 19:10J. Vanous51911119113T. Ogrocki4311691162
J. Vanous10
LSep 20 · 18:40J. Vanous1.50115571P. Jokiel2.5031111113LSep 20 · 17:40J. Vanous1.61781181R. Benesz2.2011114113WSep 19 · 20:45O. Skvor1.53111131192J. Vanous2.38135115113LSep 19 · 20:15O. Skvor1.53411711113J. Vanous2.3811711752LSep 19 · 19:15J. Vanous2.0011611862M. Janik1.73911911113LSep 19 · 17:45K. Zeman1.531112113J. Vanous2.3861090WSep 16 · 20:34J. Vanous1.801111113P. Jokiel1.917370WSep 16 · 20:10P. Jokiel1.8010370J. Vanous1.911211113LSep 16 · 19:10J. Vanous1.8064110O. Kus1.911111133LSep 16 · 17:40K. Zeman1.5312711133J. Vanous2.3810116111
T. Ogrocki10
WSep 20 · 19:10R. Benesz2.388590T. Ogrocki1.531111113WSep 20 · 18:10T. Ogrocki1.53911511113P. Jokiel2.3811511772WSep 19 · 16:45O. Skvor2.105930T. Ogrocki1.671111113LSep 19 · 16:15O. Skvor1.5391111113T. Ogrocki2.38119951WSep 19 · 15:15T. Ogrocki1.83661111113M. Janik1.8311117772LSep 19 · 13:45A. Drozd1.57114116143T. Ogrocki2.25511911122WSep 17 · 21:10R. Benesz2.102490T. Ogrocki1.671111113WSep 17 · 19:40P. Jokiel2.107101151T. Ogrocki1.6711127113WSep 17 · 19:10M. Dolezal2.10912991T. Ogrocki1.67111011113LSep 17 · 18:10T. Ogrocki1.531131091R. Benesz2.3871112113
Upcoming Matches
J. Vanous
Nothing scheduled
T. Ogrocki
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.