TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 21Finished
Ondrej Paril
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711811119116511
Jan Dzida
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Dzida to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Paril above · Jan Dzida below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 90 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Jan Dzida at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Paril 25–28 Jan Dzida Ondrej Paril has won 25 of their 53 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:35What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dzida
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-28 in 53
Dzida
Correct
gap of 3 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Paril 1844 vs Dzida 1899
Dzida
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Paril 20% vs Dzida 60%
Dzida
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Paril 40% vs Dzida 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Paril -3 · Dzida +1
Paril
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Dzida) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Paril form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsParil 2.00 / Dzida 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Dzida)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13165645
Paril2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog47% won 112 of 237
Down 0–1, comes back24% 31 of 128
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 73
Dzida1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 135 of 232
Up 2–0, closes it95% 61 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it74% 98 of 132
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeParil5wins
AwayDzida5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeParil71.4%5 of 7
AwayDzida100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Paril7Dzida3n = 10Paril took 7 of 10
S2Paril5Dzida5n = 10split evenly
S3Paril3Dzida7n = 10Dzida took 7 of 10
S4Paril4Dzida1n = 5Paril took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricParilDzidaP − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match35.434.6+0.8per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricParilDzidaBasisWin rate · lifetime501 / 963 vs 216 / 36852%58.7%501 / 963 vs 216 / 368Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DzidaParil 2.00/Dzida 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Dzida · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dzida won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 18:30O. Paril2913790J. Dzida371511113
WSep 4 · 13:30O. Paril351113113J. Dzida2451180
WSep 4 · 12:30O. Paril3711113123J. Dzida378811101
LSep 1 · 16:59O. Paril4711881192J. Dzida44311118113
LSep 1 · 16:30O. Paril229850J. Dzida331111113
WAug 29 · 10:00O. Paril4411912123J. Dzida4091110101
LAug 23 · 20:58O. Paril237790J. Dzida331111113
LAug 23 · 18:30O. Paril3911118362J. Dzida43641111113
WAug 22 · 14:00O. Paril351311113J. Dzida2111550
WJul 18 · 18:30O. Paril43111110113J. Dzida34971261
O. Paril10
LSep 21 · 14:30J. Szotkowski1.731151111133O. Paril2.00911913112LSep 15 · 18:00M. Biolek1.73119811113O. Paril2.0091111772LSep 11 · 13:30O. Paril1.85881151P. Wawrosz1.8511119113WSep 11 · 12:00O. Paril1.731111113R. Polasek2.005590LSep 11 · 11:30R. Revay1.911113109113O. Paril1.80311121162WSep 11 · 10:00O. Paril1.804101111113P. Wawrosz1.9111128572LSep 10 · 13:30O. Paril1.738470R. Polasek2.001111113WSep 10 · 12:30O. Paril1.73111110113J. Pilch2.00251261WSep 10 · 11:00O. Paril1.44811193123M. Navedla2.631141711102LSep 10 · 10:00R. Polasek1.8311118113O. Paril1.83981191
J. Dzida10
LSep 21 · 16:00J. Dzida1.6711851162J. Szotkowski2.10611116113WSep 21 · 14:00J. Dzida1.80138311113M. Biolek1.91111111842LSep 17 · 17:30J. Dzida1.917117121R. Niezgoda1.8011511143WSep 17 · 16:00J. Dzida1.731111113J. Szotkowski2.002990WSep 17 · 15:30T. Zika2.751110441J. Dzida1.4091211113LSep 17 · 14:00J. Dzida1.8351111111R. Niezgoda1.8311913133LSep 15 · 20:58T. Dousek3.001111113J. Dzida1.369790LSep 15 · 20:00M. Biolek1.8311119143J. Dzida1.839811121LSep 15 · 19:00T. Dousek3.00111168113J. Dzida1.3693111182LSep 15 · 18:30J. Dzida1.916111110132D. Opanasiuk1.80115712153
Upcoming Matches
O. Paril
Nothing scheduled
J. Dzida
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