TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13147740
Played Sep 17Finished
Jan Dzida
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111157111214––
Rostislav Niezgoda
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRostislav Niezgoda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Dzida above · Rostislav Niezgoda below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 78 set 4, 12-14 — our read held Rostislav Niezgoda at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Jan Dzida 3–3 Rostislav Niezgoda Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Niezgoda beat Dzida 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:18What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Niezgoda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dzida 1937 vs Niezgoda 1796
Dzida
Wrong
both rated, 142 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dzida 40% vs Niezgoda 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dzida 50% vs Niezgoda 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dzida +2 · Niezgoda +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Niezgoda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Niezgoda form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDzida 1.91 / Niezgoda 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Niezgoda)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13147740
Dzida1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 7 of 14
Down 0–1, comes back44% 4 of 9
Niezgoda1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeDzida3wins
AwayNiezgoda3wins
1 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDzida100%3 of 3
AwayNiezgoda100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dzida3Niezgoda3n = 6split evenly
S2Dzida3Niezgoda3n = 6split evenly
S3Dzida1Niezgoda5n = 6Niezgoda took 5 of 6
S4Dzida2Niezgoda2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricDzidaNiezgodaD − NBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match36.738.3−1.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDzidaNiezgodaBasisWin rate · lifetime216 / 367 vs 7 / 1158.9%63.6%216 / 367 vs 7 / 11Avg sets wonper match2.22.5per matchAvg pointsper match39.541.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NiezgodaDzida 1.91/Niezgoda 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Niezgoda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Niezgoda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 17 · 14:00J. Dzida3851111111R. Niezgoda4611913133
LMar 13 · 15:30J. Dzida2351170R. Niezgoda351113113
WFeb 5 · 16:00J. Dzida5012189113R. Niezgoda4510161181
LJan 16 · 17:57J. Dzida2661190R. Niezgoda351113113
WJan 16 · 16:30J. Dzida43114116113R. Niezgoda3881111172
WJan 9 · 15:00J. Dzida4011117113R. Niezgoda31841181
J. Dzida10
WSep 17 · 16:00J. Dzida1.731111113J. Szotkowski2.002990WSep 17 · 15:30T. Zika2.751110441J. Dzida1.4091211113LSep 17 · 14:00J. Dzida1.8351111111R. Niezgoda1.8311913133LSep 15 · 20:58T. Dousek3.001111113J. Dzida1.369790LSep 15 · 20:00M. Biolek1.8311119143J. Dzida1.839811121LSep 15 · 19:00T. Dousek3.00111168113J. Dzida1.3693111182LSep 15 · 18:30J. Dzida1.916111110132D. Opanasiuk1.80115712153WSep 14 · 17:30J. Dzida1.851211113M. Biolek1.8510620WSep 14 · 16:30J. Dzida1.6713213113J. Szotkowski2.1011111191WSep 14 · 15:00J. Dzida1.57111113113M. Cabis2.25791551
R. Niezgoda10
WSep 17 · 16:30R. Niezgoda2.001114911113T. Zika1.7361611852LSep 17 · 15:00R. Niezgoda1.83153991J. Szotkowski1.83131111113WSep 17 · 14:00J. Dzida1.8351111111R. Niezgoda1.8311913133LSep 16 · 21:28R. Niezgoda1.9111812692T. Zika1.807111011113LSep 16 · 20:00R. Niezgoda1.675111011112T. Zika2.10115123133WSep 16 · 19:30R. Polasek3.001139111R. Niezgoda1.3691111133WSep 16 · 18:00R. Niezgoda1.7311114123T. Dousek2.005711101WSep 14 · 21:30T. Dousek2.5011530R. Niezgoda1.501311113WSep 14 · 20:30R. Niezgoda1.731111113L. Prikasky2.003750LSep 14 · 19:00R. Niezgoda1.80581161T. Dousek1.9111116113
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