TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13140520
Played Sep 17Finished
Jan Dzida
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
112119119––––
Jan Szotkowski
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:33 and never touched — 57.8% is still 57.8%
Graded at full timeJan Dzida to win
57.8%
57.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Dzida above · Jan Szotkowski below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 53 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Jan Dzida at 57.8%
53 points played in total.
H2H Jan Dzida 15–8 Jan Szotkowski Jan Szotkowski has won 8 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:33What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dzida
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-8 in 23
Dzida
Correct
gap of 7 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dzida 1930 vs Szotkowski 1896
Dzida
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dzida 20% vs Szotkowski 60%
Szotkowski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dzida 50% vs Szotkowski 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dzida +1 · Szotkowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Dzida) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dzida form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDzida 1.73 / Szotkowski 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Dzida)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13140520
Dzida1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 137 of 236
Up 2–0, closes it95% 62 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it75% 101 of 135
Szotkowski2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog55% won 67 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back20% 9 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDzida6wins
AwaySzotkowski4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDzida leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDzida100%4 of 4
AwaySzotkowski66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dzida4Szotkowski6n = 10Szotkowski took 6 of 10
S2Dzida4Szotkowski6n = 10Szotkowski took 6 of 10
S3Dzida7Szotkowski3n = 10Dzida took 7 of 10
S4Dzida5Szotkowski4n = 9Dzida took 5 of 9
S5Dzida2Szotkowski1n = 3Dzida took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDzidaSzotkowskiD − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.741.3−1.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDzidaSzotkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime215 / 366 vs 431 / 82858.7%52.1%215 / 366 vs 431 / 828Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.640.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DzidaDzida 1.73/Szotkowski 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Dzida · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Dzida won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 16:30J. Dzida3913213113J. Szotkowski4211111191
LAug 27 · 15:30J. Dzida48812121152J. Szotkowski551114109113
LAug 25 · 16:30J. Dzida124620J. Szotkowski331111113
WAug 18 · 15:00J. Dzida4515118113J. Szotkowski401381181
LAug 11 · 16:00J. Dzida34951191J. Szotkowski4011117113
LJul 30 · 15:00J. Dzida35691191J. Szotkowski4211119113
WJul 28 · 14:00J. Dzida3711114113J. Szotkowski35991161
WJul 23 · 17:29J. Dzida53139115153J. Szotkowski501111411132
WJul 23 · 15:00J. Dzida521011119113J. Szotkowski4612681192
WJul 21 · 15:00J. Dzida4281211113J. Szotkowski301110631
J. Dzida10
WSep 17 · 15:30T. Zika2.751110441J. Dzida1.4091211113LSep 17 · 14:00J. Dzida1.8351111111R. Niezgoda1.8311913133LSep 15 · 20:58T. Dousek3.001111113J. Dzida1.369790LSep 15 · 20:00M. Biolek1.8311119143J. Dzida1.839811121LSep 15 · 19:00T. Dousek3.00111168113J. Dzida1.3693111182LSep 15 · 18:30J. Dzida1.916111110132D. Opanasiuk1.80115712153WSep 14 · 17:30J. Dzida1.851211113M. Biolek1.8510620WSep 14 · 16:30J. Dzida1.6713213113J. Szotkowski2.1011111191WSep 14 · 15:00J. Dzida1.57111113113M. Cabis2.25791551WSep 14 · 14:00M. Biolek1.915970J. Dzida1.801111113
J. Szotkowski10
WSep 17 · 15:00R. Niezgoda1.83153991J. Szotkowski1.83131111113LSep 17 · 14:30J. Szotkowski1.73711911112T. Zika2.00112116133WSep 17 · 13:00J. Szotkowski1.441111113P. Wawrosz2.639470LSep 17 · 12:00R. Polasek2.251111113J. Szotkowski1.576760WSep 17 · 11:00T. Zika2.101141171J. Szotkowski1.6791113113WSep 17 · 10:30J. Szotkowski1.571111113P. Wawrosz2.257940LSep 15 · 13:00R. Polasek2.2511912113J. Szotkowski1.577111081LSep 15 · 12:00J. Szotkowski1.835171171D. Opanasiuk1.8311197113LSep 15 · 11:30M. Vavrecka2.5011911113J. Szotkowski1.50811991LSep 14 · 16:30J. Dzida1.6713213113J. Szotkowski2.1011111191
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