TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13140643
Played Sep 17Finished
Jan Szotkowski
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111129111161113
Tadeas Zika
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:55 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeJan Szotkowski to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Szotkowski above · Tadeas Zika below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 92 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Jan Szotkowski at 55.8%
92 points played in total.
H2H Jan Szotkowski 114–98 Tadeas Zika Tadeas Zika has won 98 of their 212 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Szotkowski beat Zika 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:55What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Szotkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
114-98 in 212
Szotkowski
Wrong
gap of 16 in 212, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szotkowski 1892 vs Zika 1861
Szotkowski
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szotkowski 60% vs Zika 80%
Zika
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szotkowski 50% vs Zika 70%
Zika
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Szotkowski +1 · Zika +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Szotkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zika form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzotkowski 1.73 / Zika 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Szotkowski)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13140643
Szotkowski1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 129 of 239
Up 2–0, closes it93% 67 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it73% 102 of 139
Zika2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 311 of 671
Down 0–1, comes back28% 96 of 342
Down 0–2, comes back8% 14 of 174
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzotkowski6wins
AwayZika4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSzotkowski leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzotkowski71.4%5 of 7
AwayZika66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szotkowski7Zika3n = 10Szotkowski took 7 of 10
S2Szotkowski3Zika7n = 10Zika took 7 of 10
S3Szotkowski6Zika4n = 10Szotkowski took 6 of 10
S4Szotkowski5Zika2n = 7Szotkowski took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzotkowskiZikaS − ZBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.635.0+4.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzotkowskiZikaBasisWin rate · lifetime430 / 826 vs 794 / 172552.1%46%430 / 826 vs 794 / 1725Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.438.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzotkowskiSzotkowski 1.73/Zika 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Szotkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zika won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 12:58J. Szotkowski2671090T. Zika341112113
WSep 3 · 10:30J. Szotkowski331111113T. Zika177730
WSep 3 · 06:00J. Szotkowski331111113T. Zika133820
WSep 2 · 10:30J. Szotkowski5019911113T. Zika421711861
WAug 31 · 19:00J. Szotkowski4312811123T. Zika3510114101
WAug 31 · 15:00J. Szotkowski53781611113T. Zika49111114762
WAug 27 · 17:30J. Szotkowski4211811123T. Zika355119101
LAug 27 · 14:30J. Szotkowski37911981T. Zika3611311113
LAug 27 · 10:00J. Szotkowski45111051182T. Zika49912116113
LAug 25 · 17:30J. Szotkowski34117971T. Zika4071111113
J. Szotkowski10
LSep 17 · 16:00J. Dzida1.731111113J. Szotkowski2.002990WSep 17 · 15:00R. Niezgoda1.83153991J. Szotkowski1.83131111113WSep 17 · 13:00J. Szotkowski1.441111113P. Wawrosz2.639470LSep 17 · 12:00R. Polasek2.251111113J. Szotkowski1.576760WSep 17 · 10:30J. Szotkowski1.571111113P. Wawrosz2.257940LSep 15 · 13:00R. Polasek2.2511912113J. Szotkowski1.577111081LSep 15 · 12:00J. Szotkowski1.835171171D. Opanasiuk1.8311197113LSep 15 · 11:30M. Vavrecka2.5011911113J. Szotkowski1.50811991WSep 15 · 10:00J. Szotkowski1.57111185113R. Polasek2.2583111142WSep 14 · 17:00J. Szotkowski1.851111113M. Cabis1.806330
T. Zika10
LSep 17 · 16:30R. Niezgoda2.001114911113T. Zika1.7361611852LSep 17 · 15:30T. Zika2.751110441J. Dzida1.4091211113WSep 17 · 13:30R. Polasek1.856990T. Zika1.851111113WSep 17 · 12:30T. Zika1.8091111113P. Wawrosz1.91118871WSep 17 · 10:00R. Polasek1.831011591T. Zika1.8312511113WSep 16 · 21:28R. Niezgoda1.9111812692T. Zika1.807111011113WSep 16 · 20:00R. Niezgoda1.675111011112T. Zika2.10115123133LSep 16 · 19:00T. Dousek1.67811117113T. Zika2.1011581172WSep 16 · 18:30T. Zika1.911111113R. Polasek1.808890WSep 16 · 17:00R. Polasek1.61771151T. Zika2.2011119113
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