TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13135922
Played Sep 16Finished
Tomas Dousek
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811115118711117
Tadeas Zika
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:47 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeTomas Dousek to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Dousek above · Tadeas Zika below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 90 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Tomas Dousek at 56.2%
90 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Dousek 47–32 Tadeas Zika Tadeas Zika has won 32 of their 79 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Dousek beat Zika 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:47What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Dousek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
47-32 in 79
Dousek
Correct
gap of 15 in 79, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dousek 1860 vs Zika 1814
Dousek
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dousek 40% vs Zika 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dousek 40% vs Zika 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dousek -2 · Zika +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Dousek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dousek form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDousek 1.67 / Zika 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Dousek)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13135922
Dousek1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 105 of 193
Up 2–0, closes it91% 49 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it75% 82 of 109
Zika2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 308 of 665
Down 0–1, comes back28% 96 of 340
Down 0–2, comes back8% 14 of 172
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDousek5wins
AwayZika5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDousek71.4%5 of 7
AwayZika100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dousek7Zika3n = 10Dousek took 7 of 10
S2Dousek3Zika7n = 10Zika took 7 of 10
S3Dousek6Zika4n = 10Dousek took 6 of 10
S4Dousek4Zika3n = 7Dousek took 4 of 7
S5Dousek2Zika3n = 5Zika took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDousekZikaD − ZBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.938.6+1.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDousekZikaBasisWin rate · lifetime250 / 472 vs 789 / 171853%45.9%250 / 472 vs 789 / 1718Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DousekDousek 1.67/Zika 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Dousek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Dousek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 11:30T. Dousek42114511113T. Zika3721111942
WSep 2 · 12:30T. Dousek3911611113T. Zika36911881
LSep 1 · 11:00T. Dousek51813811112T. Zika541111118133
WAug 26 · 18:00T. Dousek351311113T. Zika2511680
LAug 24 · 12:58T. Dousek4311713392T. Zika495111111113
LAug 24 · 10:30T. Dousek2681080T. Zika341112113
WAug 21 · 19:00T. Dousek341112113T. Zika2071030
LAug 19 · 12:30T. Dousek4711811892T. Zika46711611113
LAug 17 · 15:00T. Dousek32881151T. Zika4011117113
WAug 13 · 11:00T. Dousek50119811113T. Zika4591111952
T. Dousek10
LSep 16 · 18:00R. Niezgoda1.7311114123T. Dousek2.005711101LSep 16 · 17:30M. Skotnica2.101111113T. Dousek1.657640WSep 16 · 16:00R. Polasek1.91102121282T. Dousek1.8012111010113LSep 16 · 15:00M. Skotnica2.001111611113T. Dousek1.7396111372WSep 16 · 14:30T. Dousek1.671114113T. Zika2.1081270WSep 15 · 20:58T. Dousek3.001111113J. Dzida1.369790LSep 15 · 20:30T. Dousek2.00912110D. Opanasiuk1.731114133WSep 15 · 19:00T. Dousek3.00111168113J. Dzida1.3693111182LSep 15 · 18:00M. Biolek1.53119811113T. Dousek2.3891111772LSep 14 · 21:30T. Dousek2.5011530R. Niezgoda1.501311113
T. Zika10
WSep 16 · 18:30T. Zika1.911111113R. Polasek1.808890WSep 16 · 17:00R. Polasek1.61771151T. Zika2.2011119113LSep 16 · 16:30M. Skotnica1.8012126113T. Zika1.9110101171LSep 16 · 15:30T. Zika1.83891181R. Polasek1.8311117113LSep 16 · 14:30T. Dousek1.671114113T. Zika2.1081270WSep 5 · 16:58T. Dousek1.7361181182T. Zika2.00117117113WSep 5 · 16:30R. Polasek1.8311410101T. Zika1.8331112123LSep 5 · 15:30T. Zika2.101112111182T. Dousek1.67814913113LSep 5 · 14:30M. Biolek1.501112123T. Zika2.50810100LSep 5 · 13:03M. Cabis1.5571211113T. Zika2.301110831
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