TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13141485
Played Sep 16Finished
Martin Skotnica
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117116114––––
Tomas Dousek
Away
1.65
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Dousek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Skotnica above · Tomas Dousek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 50 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Tomas Dousek at 54.0%
50 points played in total.
H2H Martin Skotnica 3–4 Tomas Dousek Martin Skotnica has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Skotnica beat Dousek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:04What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Dousek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skotnica 1905 vs Dousek 1908
Dousek
Wrong
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skotnica 60% vs Dousek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skotnica 70% vs Dousek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skotnica +3 · Dousek +1
Skotnica
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Dousek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skotnica form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkotnica 2.10 / Dousek 1.65
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Dousek)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13141485
Skotnica2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog27% won 4 of 15
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 7
Dousek1.65
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 105 of 193
Up 2–0, closes it91% 49 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it75% 82 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeSkotnica3wins
AwayDousek4wins
4 of 7 to a deciderDousek leads 4–3, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkotnica50%3 of 6
AwayDousekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skotnica6Dousek1n = 7Skotnica took 6 of 7
S2Skotnica4Dousek3n = 7Skotnica took 4 of 7
S3Skotnica3Dousek4n = 7Dousek took 4 of 7
S4Skotnica0Dousek6n = 6Dousek took 6 of 6
S5Skotnica2Dousek2n = 4split evenly
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricSkotnicaDousekS − DBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set61+5of 7Avg pointsper match42.142.7−0.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkotnicaDousekBasisWin rate · lifetime126 / 226 vs 250 / 47055.8%53.2%126 / 226 vs 250 / 470Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.739.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DousekSkotnica 2.10/Dousek 1.65
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.4%
Dousek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Skotnica won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 16 · 15:00M. Skotnica501111611113T. Dousek4696111372
LApr 3 · 14:00M. Skotnica351210851T. Dousek44101211113
LFeb 26 · 17:00M. Skotnica46111171072T. Dousek50881112113
WFeb 23 · 16:30M. Skotnica361111143T. Dousek2787120
WFeb 19 · 16:30M. Skotnica51119119113T. Dousek4591181162
LJan 23 · 17:00M. Skotnica47711111172T. Dousek45115513113
LJan 8 · 17:00M. Skotnica30116941T. Dousek4291111113
M. Skotnica10
WSep 16 · 16:30M. Skotnica1.8012126113T. Zika1.9110101171WSep 16 · 15:00M. Skotnica2.001111611113T. Dousek1.7396111372WSep 16 · 14:00R. Polasek1.8386111162M. Skotnica1.83111186113LSep 9 · 17:00M. Skotnica1.61101111852L. Prikasky2.20129611113LSep 9 · 16:00M. Skotnica1.73431171M. Grundel2.0011113113WSep 9 · 15:30R. Polasek1.75711781M. Skotnica1.9511811113WSep 9 · 14:00M. Skotnica1.618111110113L. Prikasky2.2011561252LSep 4 · 17:31M. Skotnica1.67912118102L. Prikasky2.101110711123WSep 4 · 16:00M. Skotnica1.671111143M. Navedla2.1067120WSep 4 · 15:30L. Prikasky2.1041030M. Skotnica1.671112113
T. Dousek10
LSep 16 · 18:00R. Niezgoda1.7311114123T. Dousek2.005711101WSep 16 · 16:00R. Polasek1.91102121282T. Dousek1.8012111010113LSep 16 · 15:00M. Skotnica2.001111611113T. Dousek1.7396111372WSep 16 · 14:30T. Dousek1.671114113T. Zika2.1081270WSep 15 · 20:58T. Dousek3.001111113J. Dzida1.369790LSep 15 · 20:30T. Dousek2.00912110D. Opanasiuk1.731114133WSep 15 · 19:00T. Dousek3.00111168113J. Dzida1.3693111182LSep 15 · 18:00M. Biolek1.53119811113T. Dousek2.3891111772LSep 14 · 21:30T. Dousek2.5011530R. Niezgoda1.501311113WSep 14 · 20:00M. Navedla2.251213581T. Dousek1.57101511113
Upcoming Matches
M. Skotnica
Nothing scheduled
T. Dousek
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