TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13134507
Played Sep 16Finished
Tadeas Zika
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118118119––––
Radovan Polasek
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:07 and never touched — 58.4% is still 58.4%
Graded at full timeRadovan Polasek to win
58.4%
58.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTadeas Zika above · Radovan Polasek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 58 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Radovan Polasek at 58.4%
58 points played in total.
H2H Tadeas Zika 84–83 Radovan Polasek Radovan Polasek has won 83 of their 167 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
They have already met 2 times today · last one 2h before this match
Zika beat Polasek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:07What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Polasek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
84-83 in 167
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zika 1804 vs Polasek 1841
Polasek
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zika 40% vs Polasek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zika 30% vs Polasek 50%
Polasek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zika +1 · Polasek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Polasek) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polasek form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZika 1.91 / Polasek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Polasek)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13134507
Zika1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 308 of 665
Down 0–1, comes back28% 96 of 340
Down 0–2, comes back8% 14 of 172
Polasek1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite52% won 151 of 289
Up 2–0, closes it85% 76 of 89
Up 1–0, closes it71% 105 of 147
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZika5wins
AwayPolasek5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZika33.3%1 of 3
AwayPolasek42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zika3Polasek7n = 10Polasek took 7 of 10
S2Zika5Polasek5n = 10split evenly
S3Zika5Polasek5n = 10split evenly
S4Zika3Polasek4n = 7Polasek took 4 of 7
S5Zika3Polasek1n = 4Zika took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricZikaPolasekZ − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.939.3−3.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZikaPolasekBasisWin rate · lifetime790 / 1720 vs 462 / 91245.9%50.7%790 / 1720 vs 462 / 912Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolasekZika 1.91/Polasek 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Polasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Zika won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 27 · 15:00T. Zika44111111113R. Polasek30136741
LAug 26 · 07:30T. Zika204970R. Polasek331111113
WAug 25 · 12:30T. Zika45511115133R. Polasek47117711112
LAug 22 · 12:30T. Zika27117361R. Polasek4291111113
WAug 21 · 20:58T. Zika331111113R. Polasek279990
LAug 21 · 18:30T. Zika184950R. Polasek331111113
LAug 21 · 17:30T. Zika46116118102R. Polasek48611811123
WAug 21 · 16:00T. Zika48911611113R. Polasek4411811862
LAug 19 · 06:00T. Zika314115111R. Polasek4211711133
WAug 17 · 12:58T. Zika47291111143R. Polasek47111185122
T. Zika10
WSep 17 · 17:14T. Zika2.021191211113J. Szotkowski1.7041114672LSep 17 · 16:30R. Niezgoda2.001114911113T. Zika1.7361611852LSep 17 · 15:30T. Zika2.751110441J. Dzida1.4091211113WSep 17 · 14:30J. Szotkowski1.73711911112T. Zika2.00112116133WSep 17 · 13:30R. Polasek1.856990T. Zika1.851111113WSep 17 · 12:30T. Zika1.8091111113P. Wawrosz1.91118871LSep 17 · 11:00T. Zika2.101141171J. Szotkowski1.6791113113WSep 17 · 10:00R. Polasek1.831011591T. Zika1.8312511113WSep 16 · 21:28R. Niezgoda1.9111812692T. Zika1.807111011113WSep 16 · 20:00R. Niezgoda1.675111011112T. Zika2.10115123133
R. Polasek10
LSep 17 · 13:30R. Polasek1.856990T. Zika1.851111113WSep 17 · 12:00R. Polasek2.251111113J. Szotkowski1.576760WSep 17 · 11:30P. Wawrosz1.8335100R. Polasek1.831111123LSep 17 · 10:00R. Polasek1.831011591T. Zika1.8312511113LSep 16 · 21:03T. Dousek1.28111110113R. Polasek3.50361281WSep 16 · 20:30T. Dousek1.80911111152R. Polasek1.91113139113LSep 16 · 19:30R. Polasek3.001139111R. Niezgoda1.3691111133LSep 16 · 17:00R. Polasek1.61771151T. Zika2.2011119113LSep 16 · 16:00R. Polasek1.91102121282T. Dousek1.8012111010113WSep 16 · 15:30T. Zika1.83891181R. Polasek1.8311117113
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