TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13134506
Played Sep 16Finished
Radovan Polasek
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1193119111113––
Rostislav Niezgoda
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadovan Polasek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadovan Polasek above · Rostislav Niezgoda below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 78 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Radovan Polasek at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Radovan Polasek 1–2 Rostislav Niezgoda Radovan Polasek has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:07What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Niezgoda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polasek 1843 vs Niezgoda 1779
Polasek
Wrong
both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polasek 20% vs Niezgoda 80%
Niezgoda
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polasek 40% vs Niezgoda 80%
Niezgoda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Polasek -3 · Niezgoda +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Niezgoda) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polasek form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolasek 3.00 / Niezgoda 1.36
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Niezgoda)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13134506
Polasek3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog51% won 128 of 253
Down 0–1, comes back27% 33 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 66
Niezgoda1.36
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomePolasek1wins
AwayNiezgoda2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderNiezgoda leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolasekn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayNiezgoda66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polasek0Niezgoda3n = 3Niezgoda took 3 of 3
S2Polasek1Niezgoda2n = 3Niezgoda took 2 of 3
S3Polasek1Niezgoda2n = 3Niezgoda took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricPolasekNiezgodaP − NBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match29.742.3−12.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolasekNiezgodaBasisWin rate · lifetime461 / 909 vs 4 / 550.7%80%461 / 909 vs 4 / 5Avg sets wonper match2.12.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NiezgodaPolasek 3.00/Niezgoda 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.8%
Niezgoda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Niezgoda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LMar 20 · 20:30R. Polasek26831141R. Niezgoda4211119113
LMar 14 · 18:30R. Polasek178270R. Niezgoda331111113
WMar 14 · 16:00R. Polasek46611216113R. Niezgoda52117111492
R. Polasek10
WSep 16 · 20:30T. Dousek1.80911111152R. Polasek1.91113139113LSep 16 · 18:30T. Zika1.911111113R. Polasek1.808890LSep 16 · 17:00R. Polasek1.61771151T. Zika2.2011119113LSep 16 · 16:00R. Polasek1.91102121282T. Dousek1.8012111010113WSep 16 · 15:30T. Zika1.83891181R. Polasek1.8311117113LSep 16 · 14:00R. Polasek1.8386111162M. Skotnica1.83111186113WSep 15 · 13:00R. Polasek2.2511912113J. Szotkowski1.577111081WSep 15 · 12:30R. Polasek1.7391111133M. Vavrecka2.001166111LSep 15 · 11:00R. Polasek2.2014250D. Opanasiuk1.611611113LSep 15 · 10:00J. Szotkowski1.57111185113R. Polasek2.2583111142
R. Niezgoda10
LSep 16 · 20:00R. Niezgoda1.675111011112T. Zika2.10115123133WSep 16 · 18:00R. Niezgoda1.7311114123T. Dousek2.005711101WSep 14 · 21:30T. Dousek2.5011530R. Niezgoda1.501311113WSep 14 · 20:30R. Niezgoda1.731111113L. Prikasky2.003750LSep 14 · 19:00R. Niezgoda1.80581161T. Dousek1.9111116113WSep 14 · 18:00M. Navedla1.8357111152R. Niezgoda1.83111188113WSep 9 · 21:10D. Sarganek2.357790R. Niezgoda1.481111113WSep 9 · 19:45R. Niezgoda1.731111113P. Vicherek2.009730LSep 9 · 18:45R. Niezgoda1.611110851D. Sarganek2.2091211113WSep 9 · 17:45R. Niezgoda1.5011118113R. Kowal2.50651171
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