TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13140632
Played Sep 17Finished
Radovan Polasek
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116117116––––
Jan Szotkowski
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:55 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeJan Szotkowski to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadovan Polasek above · Jan Szotkowski below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 52 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Jan Szotkowski at 58.1%
52 points played in total.
H2H Radovan Polasek 20–29 Jan Szotkowski Radovan Polasek has won 20 of their 49 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:55What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Szotkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-29 in 49
Szotkowski
Wrong
gap of 9 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polasek 1840 vs Szotkowski 1891
Szotkowski
Wrong
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polasek 40% vs Szotkowski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polasek 30% vs Szotkowski 50%
Szotkowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Polasek +1 · Szotkowski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Szotkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szotkowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolasek 2.25 / Szotkowski 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Szotkowski)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13140632
Polasek2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 129 of 257
Down 0–1, comes back26% 33 of 125
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 68
Szotkowski1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 129 of 239
Up 2–0, closes it93% 67 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it73% 102 of 139
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePolasek3wins
AwaySzotkowski7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSzotkowski leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolasek40%2 of 5
AwaySzotkowski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polasek5Szotkowski5n = 10split evenly
S2Polasek5Szotkowski5n = 10split evenly
S3Polasek5Szotkowski5n = 10split evenly
S4Polasek1Szotkowski5n = 6Szotkowski took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPolasekSzotkowskiP − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.639.0−5.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolasekSzotkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime463 / 914 vs 429 / 82450.7%52.1%463 / 914 vs 429 / 824Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.540.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzotkowskiPolasek 2.25/Szotkowski 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Szotkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Polasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 09:28R. Polasek2710890J. Szotkowski341211113
LSep 3 · 07:00R. Polasek146260J. Szotkowski331111113
LAug 27 · 16:30R. Polasek3411112372J. Szotkowski48691111113
LAug 25 · 11:30R. Polasek33157381J. Szotkowski46131111113
LAug 11 · 10:00R. Polasek27481141J. Szotkowski4111118113
WAug 3 · 15:00R. Polasek341111123J. Szotkowski2688100
LJul 17 · 11:00R. Polasek377121081J. Szotkowski44111012113
LJul 16 · 12:00R. Polasek55119159112J. Szotkowski568111311133
WJul 9 · 13:30R. Polasek351111133J. Szotkowski2559110
WJul 9 · 12:00R. Polasek4061211113J. Szotkowski371110881
R. Polasek10
WSep 17 · 11:30P. Wawrosz1.8335100R. Polasek1.831111123LSep 17 · 10:00R. Polasek1.831011591T. Zika1.8312511113LSep 16 · 21:03T. Dousek1.28111110113R. Polasek3.50361281WSep 16 · 20:30T. Dousek1.80911111152R. Polasek1.91113139113LSep 16 · 19:30R. Polasek3.001139111R. Niezgoda1.3691111133LSep 16 · 18:30T. Zika1.911111113R. Polasek1.808890LSep 16 · 17:00R. Polasek1.61771151T. Zika2.2011119113LSep 16 · 16:00R. Polasek1.91102121282T. Dousek1.8012111010113WSep 16 · 15:30T. Zika1.83891181R. Polasek1.8311117113LSep 16 · 14:00R. Polasek1.8386111162M. Skotnica1.83111186113
J. Szotkowski10
WSep 17 · 13:00J. Szotkowski1.441111113P. Wawrosz2.639470WSep 17 · 11:00T. Zika2.101141171J. Szotkowski1.6791113113WSep 17 · 10:30J. Szotkowski1.571111113P. Wawrosz2.257940LSep 15 · 13:00R. Polasek2.2511912113J. Szotkowski1.577111081LSep 15 · 12:00J. Szotkowski1.835171171D. Opanasiuk1.8311197113LSep 15 · 11:30M. Vavrecka2.5011911113J. Szotkowski1.50811991WSep 15 · 10:00J. Szotkowski1.57111185113R. Polasek2.2583111142WSep 14 · 17:00J. Szotkowski1.851111113M. Cabis1.806330LSep 14 · 16:30J. Dzida1.6713213113J. Szotkowski2.1011111191LSep 14 · 15:30J. Szotkowski2.0061111992M. Biolek1.73119811113
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