TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13130300
Played Sep 14Finished
Jan Szotkowski
Home
1.85
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116113113––––
Michal Cabis
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:59 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Cabis to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Szotkowski above · Michal Cabis below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 45 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Michal Cabis at 54.0%
45 points played in total.
H2H Jan Szotkowski 16–16 Michal Cabis Dead even across their 32 meetings.
Last 10 · 8–2Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Szotkowski beat Cabis 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:59What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Cabis
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-16 in 32
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szotkowski 1888 vs Cabis 1833
Szotkowski
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szotkowski 40% vs Cabis 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szotkowski 30% vs Cabis 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Szotkowski -2 · Cabis -3
Cabis
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cabis)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cabis form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzotkowski 1.85 / Cabis 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Cabis)+3.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13130300
Szotkowski1.85
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog55% won 66 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Cabis1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 117 of 210
Up 2–0, closes it93% 57 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it76% 76 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzotkowski8wins
AwayCabis2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSzotkowski leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzotkowski85.7%6 of 7
AwayCabis33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szotkowski7Cabis3n = 10Szotkowski took 7 of 10
S2Szotkowski7Cabis3n = 10Szotkowski took 7 of 10
S3Szotkowski5Cabis5n = 10split evenly
S4Szotkowski4Cabis1n = 5Szotkowski took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzotkowskiCabisS − CBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.731.1+6.6per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzotkowskiCabisBasisWin rate · lifetime426 / 821 vs 370 / 70751.9%52.3%426 / 821 vs 370 / 707Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.539.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CabisSzotkowski 1.85/Cabis 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Cabis · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Szotkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 14:30J. Szotkowski4211119113M. Cabis31751181
LAug 31 · 17:00J. Szotkowski24101040M. Cabis351212113
LAug 31 · 14:30J. Szotkowski34118871M. Cabis4071111113
WAug 20 · 12:00J. Szotkowski341211113M. Cabis2310670
WAug 18 · 11:00J. Szotkowski43101111113M. Cabis35127791
WAug 14 · 08:00J. Szotkowski361111143M. Cabis2659120
WAug 5 · 12:00J. Szotkowski47116811113M. Cabis4371111592
WJul 9 · 15:00J. Szotkowski331111113M. Cabis185490
WJul 2 · 17:00J. Szotkowski51911911113M. Cabis4311711682
WJul 2 · 14:30J. Szotkowski331111113M. Cabis176560
J. Szotkowski10
LSep 14 · 16:30J. Dzida1.6713213113J. Szotkowski2.1011111191LSep 14 · 15:30J. Szotkowski2.0061111992M. Biolek1.73119811113WSep 14 · 14:30M. Cabis2.00751181J. Szotkowski1.7311119113WSep 14 · 13:00J. Szotkowski1.781211511113P. Wawrosz1.9314811692LSep 14 · 12:00J. Szotkowski1.50891171R. Polasek2.5011112113LSep 14 · 11:30M. Vavrecka2.6311811113J. Szotkowski1.44611591WSep 14 · 10:00J. Szotkowski1.531111910123P. Wawrosz2.38671112102LSep 3 · 12:58T. Zika1.911112113J. Szotkowski1.8071090LSep 3 · 12:00T. Dousek1.831112113J. Szotkowski1.8361090LSep 3 · 11:00M. Sedlacek1.801111113J. Szotkowski1.919660
M. Cabis10
LSep 14 · 16:00M. Biolek1.6111811123M. Cabis2.203116101LSep 14 · 15:00J. Dzida1.57111113113M. Cabis2.25791551LSep 14 · 14:30M. Cabis2.00751181J. Szotkowski1.7311119113WSep 12 · 21:29M. Cabis2.101111113D. Opanasiuk1.679580WSep 12 · 20:30M. Cabis1.83111110113R. Polasek1.83581281LSep 12 · 19:00M. Cabis2.3812671172J. Dzida1.531011119113WSep 12 · 18:00D. Opanasiuk1.61711801M. Cabis2.20111116113LSep 10 · 17:30T. Dousek1.851114113M. Cabis1.8581270WSep 10 · 16:00M. Biolek1.61951181M. Cabis2.2011116113LSep 10 · 15:00T. Dousek1.835121112143M. Cabis1.831110614122
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