TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13124031
Played Sep 14Finished
Michal Cabis
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711511119811––
Jan Szotkowski
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Cabis to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Cabis above · Jan Szotkowski below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 73 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Michal Cabis at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Michal Cabis 14–14 Jan Szotkowski Dead even across their 28 meetings.
Last 10 · 3–7Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:20What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Szotkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-14 in 28
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cabis 1858 vs Szotkowski 1895
Szotkowski
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cabis 60% vs Szotkowski 40%
Cabis
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cabis 50% vs Szotkowski 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cabis +2 · Szotkowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Szotkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szotkowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCabis 2.00 / Szotkowski 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Szotkowski)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13124031
Cabis2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 66 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back30% 24 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 37
Szotkowski1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 125 of 231
Up 2–0, closes it93% 64 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it73% 99 of 136
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCabis3wins
AwaySzotkowski7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSzotkowski leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCabis40%2 of 5
AwaySzotkowski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cabis5Szotkowski5n = 10split evenly
S2Cabis3Szotkowski7n = 10Szotkowski took 7 of 10
S3Cabis3Szotkowski7n = 10Szotkowski took 7 of 10
S4Cabis2Szotkowski5n = 7Szotkowski took 5 of 7
S5Cabis2Szotkowski2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricCabisSzotkowskiC − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.541.2−4.7per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCabisSzotkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime370 / 704 vs 425 / 81852.6%52%370 / 704 vs 425 / 818Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.140.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzotkowskiCabis 2.00/Szotkowski 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Szotkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Szotkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 18 · 11:00M. Cabis35127791J. Szotkowski43101111113
LAug 14 · 08:00M. Cabis2659120J. Szotkowski361111143
LAug 5 · 12:00M. Cabis4371111592J. Szotkowski47116811113
LJul 9 · 15:00M. Cabis185490J. Szotkowski331111113
LJul 2 · 17:00M. Cabis4311711682J. Szotkowski51911911113
LJul 2 · 14:30M. Cabis176560J. Szotkowski331111113
WJul 2 · 10:00M. Cabis4211119113J. Szotkowski35871191
LJun 25 · 16:00M. Cabis411198131J. Szotkowski4581111153
WJun 3 · 13:30M. Cabis531111811123J. Szotkowski47713116102
WJun 3 · 10:00M. Cabis47711117113J. Szotkowski4211381192
M. Cabis10
WSep 12 · 21:29M. Cabis2.101111113D. Opanasiuk1.679580WSep 12 · 20:30M. Cabis1.83111110113R. Polasek1.83581281LSep 12 · 19:00M. Cabis2.3812671172J. Dzida1.531011119113WSep 12 · 18:00D. Opanasiuk1.61711801M. Cabis2.20111116113LSep 10 · 17:30T. Dousek1.851114113M. Cabis1.8581270WSep 10 · 16:00M. Biolek1.61951181M. Cabis2.2011116113LSep 10 · 15:00T. Dousek1.835121112143M. Cabis1.831110614122LSep 10 · 14:30M. Cabis1.831111106102R. Polasek1.83561211123WSep 5 · 13:03M. Cabis1.5571211113T. Zika2.301110831LSep 5 · 12:30M. Cabis1.6151113872O. Paril2.201151111113
J. Szotkowski10
WSep 14 · 13:00J. Szotkowski1.781211511113P. Wawrosz1.9314811692LSep 14 · 12:00J. Szotkowski1.50891171R. Polasek2.5011112113LSep 14 · 11:30M. Vavrecka2.6311811113J. Szotkowski1.44611591WSep 14 · 10:00J. Szotkowski1.531111910123P. Wawrosz2.38671112102LSep 3 · 12:58T. Zika1.911112113J. Szotkowski1.8071090LSep 3 · 12:00T. Dousek1.831112113J. Szotkowski1.8361090LSep 3 · 11:00M. Sedlacek1.801111113J. Szotkowski1.919660WSep 3 · 10:30J. Szotkowski1.831111113T. Zika1.837730WSep 3 · 09:28J. Szotkowski1.571211113R. Polasek2.2510890WSep 3 · 08:30J. Szotkowski1.671111113R. Revay2.108590
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