TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 21Finished
Jan Dzida
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116811511116611
Jan Szotkowski
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:03 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeJan Dzida to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Dzida above · Jan Szotkowski below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 86 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Jan Dzida at 57.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Jan Dzida 16–8 Jan Szotkowski Jan Szotkowski has won 8 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:03What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Dzida
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-8 in 24
Dzida
Wrong
gap of 8 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dzida 1907 vs Szotkowski 1932
Szotkowski
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dzida 80% vs Szotkowski 60%
Dzida
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dzida 40% vs Szotkowski 80%
Szotkowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dzida +2 · Szotkowski +3
Szotkowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Dzida) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szotkowski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDzida 1.67 / Szotkowski 2.10
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Dzida)-1.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13165766
Dzida1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 135 of 232
Up 2–0, closes it95% 61 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it74% 98 of 132
Szotkowski2.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog56% won 71 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back19% 9 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDzida6wins
AwaySzotkowski4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDzida leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDzida100%5 of 5
AwaySzotkowski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dzida5Szotkowski5n = 10split evenly
S2Dzida4Szotkowski6n = 10Szotkowski took 6 of 10
S3Dzida7Szotkowski3n = 10Dzida took 7 of 10
S4Dzida4Szotkowski4n = 8split evenly
S5Dzida2Szotkowski1n = 3Dzida took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDzidaSzotkowskiD − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.840.3−1.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDzidaSzotkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime217 / 369 vs 442 / 83958.8%52.7%217 / 369 vs 442 / 839Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.640.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DzidaDzida 1.67/Szotkowski 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.8%
Dzida · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Szotkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 16:00J. Dzida331111113J. Szotkowski202990
WSep 14 · 16:30J. Dzida3913213113J. Szotkowski4211111191
LAug 27 · 15:30J. Dzida48812121152J. Szotkowski551114109113
LAug 25 · 16:30J. Dzida124620J. Szotkowski331111113
WAug 18 · 15:00J. Dzida4515118113J. Szotkowski401381181
LAug 11 · 16:00J. Dzida34951191J. Szotkowski4011117113
LJul 30 · 15:00J. Dzida35691191J. Szotkowski4211119113
WJul 28 · 14:00J. Dzida3711114113J. Szotkowski35991161
WJul 23 · 17:29J. Dzida53139115153J. Szotkowski501111411132
WJul 23 · 15:00J. Dzida521011119113J. Szotkowski4612681192
J. Dzida10
WSep 21 · 15:30O. Paril2.0078111152J. Dzida1.73111196113WSep 21 · 14:00J. Dzida1.80138311113M. Biolek1.91111111842LSep 17 · 17:30J. Dzida1.917117121R. Niezgoda1.8011511143WSep 17 · 16:00J. Dzida1.731111113J. Szotkowski2.002990WSep 17 · 15:30T. Zika2.751110441J. Dzida1.4091211113LSep 17 · 14:00J. Dzida1.8351111111R. Niezgoda1.8311913133LSep 15 · 20:58T. Dousek3.001111113J. Dzida1.369790LSep 15 · 20:00M. Biolek1.8311119143J. Dzida1.839811121LSep 15 · 19:00T. Dousek3.00111168113J. Dzida1.3693111182LSep 15 · 18:30J. Dzida1.916111110132D. Opanasiuk1.80115712153
J. Szotkowski10
WSep 21 · 15:00M. Biolek2.1099100J. Szotkowski1.671111123WSep 21 · 14:30J. Szotkowski1.731151111133O. Paril2.00911913112WSep 21 · 13:30T. Zika2.00711691J. Szotkowski1.7311811113LSep 21 · 12:00J. Szotkowski1.619111091R. Revay2.2011812113LSep 21 · 11:30T. Zika1.91118139113J. Szotkowski1.80711111172WSep 21 · 10:00J. Szotkowski1.57111111113R. Polasek2.25791361WSep 19 · 17:29J. Szotkowski1.731111113M. Biolek2.004840WSep 19 · 16:30T. Zika1.917121281J. Szotkowski1.80111410113WSep 19 · 15:30J. Szotkowski1.911111113T. Dousek1.803330LSep 17 · 16:00J. Dzida1.731111113J. Szotkowski2.002990
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