TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13153781
Played Sep 19Finished
Jan Szotkowski
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113113113––––
Tomas Dousek
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:14 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeTomas Dousek to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Szotkowski above · Tomas Dousek below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 42 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Tomas Dousek at 54.1%
42 points played in total.
H2H Jan Szotkowski 15–16 Tomas Dousek Jan Szotkowski has won 15 of their 31 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:14What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Dousek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-16 in 31
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szotkowski 1935 vs Dousek 1851
Szotkowski
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szotkowski 100% vs Dousek 60%
Szotkowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szotkowski 70% vs Dousek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Szotkowski +5 · Dousek +2
Szotkowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dousek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szotkowski form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzotkowski 1.91 / Dousek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dousek)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13153781
Szotkowski1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog54% won 67 of 124
Down 0–1, comes back19% 9 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Dousek1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 106 of 194
Up 2–0, closes it91% 50 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it76% 82 of 108
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzotkowski5wins
AwayDousek5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzotkowski83.3%5 of 6
AwayDousek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szotkowski6Dousek4n = 10Szotkowski took 6 of 10
S2Szotkowski2Dousek8n = 10Dousek took 8 of 10
S3Szotkowski6Dousek4n = 10Szotkowski took 6 of 10
S4Szotkowski0Dousek7n = 7Dousek took 7 of 7
S5Szotkowski4Dousek0n = 4Szotkowski took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzotkowskiDousekS − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.539.5−2.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzotkowskiDousekBasisWin rate · lifetime436 / 834 vs 253 / 47652.3%53.2%436 / 834 vs 253 / 476Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.439.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DousekSzotkowski 1.91/Dousek 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Dousek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Szotkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 12:00J. Szotkowski2561090T. Dousek341112113
LSep 2 · 13:28J. Szotkowski258890T. Dousek331111113
WSep 2 · 11:00J. Szotkowski49117119113T. Dousek3711181162
LAug 3 · 11:00J. Szotkowski28261191T. Dousek4111118113
WJul 30 · 11:00J. Szotkowski45126115113T. Dousek45101191142
LJul 14 · 15:30J. Szotkowski32117771T. Dousek4181111113
WJul 12 · 10:30J. Szotkowski331111113T. Dousek194870
WJun 29 · 13:30J. Szotkowski52138155113T. Dousek551111131192
LJun 29 · 11:00J. Szotkowski351011861T. Dousek4312911113
WJun 25 · 12:58J. Szotkowski51114119163T. Dousek47711411142
J. Szotkowski10
WSep 19 · 16:30T. Zika1.917121281J. Szotkowski1.80111410113WSep 19 · 14:30M. Biolek1.8041040J. Szotkowski1.911112113WSep 19 · 13:30J. Szotkowski2.00111114113M. Biolek1.73641671WSep 19 · 12:30T. Zika2.00115861J. Szotkowski1.7361111113WSep 19 · 11:30J. Szotkowski2.001111113M. Biolek1.736560WSep 19 · 10:30R. Niezgoda2.1010111191J. Szotkowski1.6712136113LSep 17 · 17:14T. Zika2.021191211113J. Szotkowski1.7041114672LSep 17 · 16:00J. Dzida1.731111113J. Szotkowski2.002990WSep 17 · 15:00R. Niezgoda1.83153991J. Szotkowski1.83131111113LSep 17 · 14:30J. Szotkowski1.73711911112T. Zika2.00112116133
T. Dousek10
LSep 19 · 16:00T. Dousek2.25111011392M. Biolek1.57912611113WSep 19 · 14:00T. Dousek1.50741113113T. Zika2.50111191162WSep 16 · 21:03T. Dousek1.28111110113R. Polasek3.50361281LSep 16 · 20:30T. Dousek1.80911111152R. Polasek1.91113139113WSep 16 · 19:00T. Dousek1.67811117113T. Zika2.1011581172LSep 16 · 18:00R. Niezgoda1.7311114123T. Dousek2.005711101LSep 16 · 17:30M. Skotnica2.101111113T. Dousek1.657640WSep 16 · 16:00R. Polasek1.91102121282T. Dousek1.8012111010113LSep 16 · 15:00M. Skotnica2.001111611113T. Dousek1.7396111372WSep 16 · 14:30T. Dousek1.671114113T. Zika2.1081270
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