TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Jan Kabelka
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 8
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
10121196111210511
Martin Chmelicek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Kabelka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Kabelka above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 97 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Jan Kabelka at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Jan Kabelka 22–21 Martin Chmelicek Martin Chmelicek has won 21 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:23What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kabelka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-21 in 43
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kabelka 1458 vs Chmelicek 1378
Kabelka
Wrong
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kabelka 100% vs Chmelicek 40%
Kabelka
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kabelka 90% vs Chmelicek 40%
Kabelka
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kabelka +8 · Chmelicek -1
Kabelka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Kabelka) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kabelka form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKabelka 1.73 / Chmelicek 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Kabelka)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13164443
Kabelka1.73
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 8
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 33 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it83% 25 of 30
Chmelicek2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 61 of 167
Down 0–1, comes back13% 12 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKabelka7wins
AwayChmelicek3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKabelka leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKabelka100%6 of 6
AwayChmelicek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kabelka6Chmelicek4n = 10Kabelka took 6 of 10
S2Kabelka3Chmelicek7n = 10Chmelicek took 7 of 10
S3Kabelka8Chmelicek2n = 10Kabelka took 8 of 10
S4Kabelka4Chmelicek3n = 7Kabelka took 4 of 7
S5Kabelka3Chmelicek1n = 4Kabelka took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKabelkaChmelicekK − CBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.437.0+3.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKabelkaChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime135 / 274 vs 241 / 51849.3%46.5%135 / 274 vs 241 / 518Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KabelkaKabelka 1.73/Chmelicek 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Kabelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 20:05J. Kabelka331111113M. Chmelicek202990
WSep 6 · 18:35J. Kabelka4011511133M. Chmelicek337114111
LAug 16 · 20:35J. Kabelka49891111102M. Chmelicek46111184123
WAug 13 · 21:05J. Kabelka48111187113M. Chmelicek3984111152
WAug 13 · 20:35J. Kabelka351111133M. Chmelicek2669110
WAug 12 · 20:35J. Kabelka561391211113M. Chmelicek46151110642
LAug 10 · 20:05J. Kabelka33681181M. Chmelicek4211119113
WAug 3 · 21:45J. Kabelka49116135143M. Chmelicek527111111122
LAug 3 · 18:35J. Kabelka226880M. Chmelicek331111113
WJul 30 · 18:35J. Kabelka3911611113M. Chmelicek33611881
J. Kabelka10
LSep 20 · 21:14J. Kabelka2.38116481R. Neterda1.5381111113WSep 20 · 19:05R. Neterda1.401311771J. Kabelka2.7515811113WSep 20 · 18:35L. Vosyka1.44713911102J. Kabelka2.631111116123WSep 18 · 21:48J. Kabelka1.831111113M. Cyrus1.839680WSep 18 · 20:05J. Kabelka1.801111113M. Chmelicek1.912990WSep 18 · 19:05J. Kabelka1.91119119113M. Cyrus1.8071171182WSep 18 · 18:05J. Kabelka1.7318118113M. Dvorak2.001671151WSep 6 · 21:10J. Kabelka1.5011811113M. Rojka2.50311551WSep 6 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.0051111113M. Rojka1.73117681LSep 6 · 19:05L. Vosyka1.501211113J. Kabelka2.5010720
M. Chmelicek10
WSep 20 · 21:44M. Chmelicek2.5071111123L. Vosyka1.501199101LSep 20 · 19:35M. Chmelicek2.63910111192L. Vosyka1.44111298113WSep 20 · 18:05R. Neterda1.50371161M. Chmelicek2.5011118113WSep 19 · 21:10J. Martin3.2581070M. Chmelicek1.331112113LSep 19 · 20:35M. Chmelicek2.7511124542T. Motacek1.405101111113LSep 19 · 19:05J. Martin1.671111113M. Chmelicek2.105990LSep 19 · 18:35D. Hons1.40111188113M. Chmelicek2.7594111182WSep 18 · 21:18M. Chmelicek1.44111111113M. Dvorak2.63135391LSep 18 · 20:05J. Kabelka1.801111113M. Chmelicek1.912990WSep 18 · 19:35M. Dvorak2.389980M. Chmelicek1.531111113
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