TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Jan Kabelka
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118611411811––
Radek Neterda
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
How it is goingJan Kabelka above · Radek Neterda below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 70 set 4, 8-11
70 points played in total.
H2H Jan Kabelka 1–3 Radek Neterda Jan Kabelka has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Kabelka beat Neterda 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Neterda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neterda form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKabelka 2.38 / Neterda 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Neterda)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13166671
Kabelka2.38
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 50 of 111
Down 0–1, comes back27% 18 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Neterda1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite64% won 58 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it74% 42 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKabelka1wins
AwayNeterda3wins
Neterda leads 3–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKabelkan = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayNeterda100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kabelka1Neterda3n = 4Neterda took 3 of 4
S2Kabelka0Neterda4n = 4Neterda took 4 of 4
S3Kabelka1Neterda3n = 4Neterda took 3 of 4
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away375%
These 4 meetings
MetricKabelkaNeterdaK − NBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match25.235.2−10.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKabelkaNeterdaBasisWin rate · lifetime135 / 275 vs 215 / 42749.1%50.4%135 / 275 vs 215 / 427Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NeterdaKabelka 2.38/Neterda 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.6%
Neterda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Neterda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 20 · 19:05J. Kabelka4515811113R. Neterda381311771
LJul 26 · 19:35J. Kabelka2264120R. Neterda361111143
LFeb 12 · 19:35J. Kabelka2391040R. Neterda341112113
LFeb 8 · 19:35J. Kabelka115330R. Neterda331111113
J. Kabelka10
LSep 20 · 20:35J. Kabelka1.73101161252M. Chmelicek2.001291110113WSep 20 · 19:05R. Neterda1.401311771J. Kabelka2.7515811113WSep 20 · 18:35L. Vosyka1.44713911102J. Kabelka2.631111116123WSep 18 · 21:48J. Kabelka1.831111113M. Cyrus1.839680WSep 18 · 20:05J. Kabelka1.801111113M. Chmelicek1.912990WSep 18 · 19:05J. Kabelka1.91119119113M. Cyrus1.8071171182WSep 18 · 18:05J. Kabelka1.7318118113M. Dvorak2.001671151WSep 6 · 21:10J. Kabelka1.5011811113M. Rojka2.50311551WSep 6 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.0051111113M. Rojka1.73117681LSep 6 · 19:05L. Vosyka1.501211113J. Kabelka2.5010720
R. Neterda10
LSep 20 · 20:05R. Neterda1.833650L. Vosyka1.831111113LSep 20 · 19:05R. Neterda1.401311771J. Kabelka2.7515811113LSep 20 · 18:05R. Neterda1.50371161M. Chmelicek2.5011118113WSep 19 · 13:10R. Neterda1.3611116113M. Flesar2.90731161LSep 19 · 12:05R. Neterda2.206470J. Ruzicka1.611111113WSep 19 · 11:05R. Neterda1.801111113M. Flesar1.915410LSep 19 · 10:05R. Neterda1.5731111672J. Jr2.25119911113LSep 17 · 13:10R. Neterda1.6781260L. Vosyka2.101114113WSep 17 · 12:35R. Neterda1.6761112133L. Vosyka2.1011510111LSep 17 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.73126127113R. Neterda2.001011101182
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.