TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Radek Neterda
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
311711118611––
Martin Chmelicek
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:13 and never touched — 55.0% is still 55.0%
Graded at full timeRadek Neterda to win
55.0%
55.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadek Neterda above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 68 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Radek Neterda at 55.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Radek Neterda 10–7 Martin Chmelicek Martin Chmelicek has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:13What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Neterda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-7 in 17
Neterda
Wrong
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neterda 1540 vs Chmelicek 1368
Neterda
Wrong
both rated, 172 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neterda 40% vs Chmelicek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neterda 50% vs Chmelicek 30%
Neterda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Neterda +1 · Chmelicek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Neterda) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neterda form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeterda 1.50 / Chmelicek 2.50
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Neterda)+3.6pp
TT Cup · #13163343
Neterda1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 19)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 58 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it74% 42 of 57
Chmelicek2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 61 of 167
Down 0–1, comes back13% 12 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNeterda7wins
AwayChmelicek3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNeterda leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeterda87.5%7 of 8
AwayChmelicekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neterda8Chmelicek2n = 10Neterda took 8 of 10
S2Neterda4Chmelicek6n = 10Chmelicek took 6 of 10
S3Neterda7Chmelicek3n = 10Neterda took 7 of 10
S4Neterda4Chmelicek1n = 5Neterda took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNeterdaChmelicekN − CBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match36.331.8+4.5per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeterdaChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime215 / 424 vs 240 / 51650.7%46.5%215 / 424 vs 240 / 516Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NeterdaNeterda 1.50/Chmelicek 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.1%
Neterda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 15:05R. Neterda4011711113M. Chmelicek28611651
WSep 13 · 09:10R. Neterda47123911123M. Chmelicek501011118102
WSep 13 · 06:05R. Neterda381116113M. Chmelicek2861480
WSep 9 · 10:05R. Neterda331111113M. Chmelicek219570
WJul 1 · 13:40R. Neterda391711113M. Chmelicek2515550
WJul 1 · 11:05R. Neterda3611311113M. Chmelicek27711361
LJun 17 · 17:45R. Neterda239680M. Chmelicek331111113
LJun 17 · 16:35R. Neterda43117211122M. Chmelicek50611118143
WMay 31 · 14:05R. Neterda331111113M. Chmelicek187470
LMar 8 · 22:35R. Neterda31761171M. Chmelicek3811115113
R. Neterda10
LSep 20 · 19:05R. Neterda1.401311771J. Kabelka2.7515811113WSep 19 · 13:10R. Neterda1.3611116113M. Flesar2.90731161LSep 19 · 12:05R. Neterda2.206470J. Ruzicka1.611111113WSep 19 · 11:05R. Neterda1.801111113M. Flesar1.915410LSep 19 · 10:05R. Neterda1.5731111672J. Jr2.25119911113LSep 17 · 13:10R. Neterda1.6781260L. Vosyka2.101114113WSep 17 · 12:35R. Neterda1.6761112133L. Vosyka2.1011510111LSep 17 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.73126127113R. Neterda2.001011101182LSep 17 · 10:35O. Pros1.8011711113R. Neterda1.91811451WSep 16 · 17:44R. Neterda1.671111133J. Jr2.1075110
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 20 · 19:35M. Chmelicek2.63910111192L. Vosyka1.44111298113WSep 19 · 21:10J. Martin3.2581070M. Chmelicek1.331112113LSep 19 · 20:35M. Chmelicek2.7511124542T. Motacek1.405101111113LSep 19 · 19:05J. Martin1.671111113M. Chmelicek2.105990LSep 19 · 18:35D. Hons1.40111188113M. Chmelicek2.7594111182WSep 18 · 21:18M. Chmelicek1.44111111113M. Dvorak2.63135391LSep 18 · 20:05J. Kabelka1.801111113M. Chmelicek1.912990WSep 18 · 19:35M. Dvorak2.389980M. Chmelicek1.531111113LSep 18 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.73714111162M. Cyrus2.00111685113LSep 18 · 17:10M. Flesar1.5711911113M. Chmelicek2.25411241
Upcoming Matches
R. Neterda
Nothing scheduled
M. Chmelicek
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.