TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Jachym Sebl
Home
1.85
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9111315911––––
Vojtech Koutnik
Away
1.85
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJachym Sebl to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJachym Sebl above · Vojtech Koutnik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 68 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Jachym Sebl at 54.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Jachym Sebl 10–12 Vojtech Koutnik Jachym Sebl has won 10 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:27What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Koutnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-12 in 22
Koutnik
Correct
gap of 2 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sebl 1684 vs Koutnik 1599
Sebl
Wrong
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sebl 80% vs Koutnik 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sebl 90% vs Koutnik 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sebl +3 · Koutnik +1
Sebl
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sebl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koutnik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSebl 1.85 / Koutnik 1.85
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sebl)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13163057
Sebl1.85
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Koutnik1.85
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSebl3wins
AwayKoutnik7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKoutnik leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSebl40%2 of 5
AwayKoutnik80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sebl5Koutnik5n = 10split evenly
S2Sebl4Koutnik6n = 10Koutnik took 6 of 10
S3Sebl2Koutnik8n = 10Koutnik took 8 of 10
S4Sebl2Koutnik4n = 6Koutnik took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSeblKoutnikS − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.438.4−6.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSeblKoutnikBasisWin rate · lifetime305 / 636 vs 173 / 36148%47.9%305 / 636 vs 173 / 361Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.038.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SeblSebl 1.85/Koutnik 1.85
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sebl · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Koutnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 27 · 09:59J. Sebl186660V. Koutnik331111113
LJun 27 · 08:55J. Sebl3431011101V. Koutnik3911124123
LMay 9 · 21:55J. Sebl163490V. Koutnik331111113
LMay 9 · 21:25J. Sebl28115661V. Koutnik3851111113
WApr 6 · 10:25J. Sebl48111115113V. Koutnik43981791
LApr 6 · 06:55J. Sebl238870V. Koutnik331111113
WMar 28 · 16:25J. Sebl47911511113V. Koutnik4511811872
LMar 20 · 12:55J. Sebl4512118592V. Koutnik521091111113
WFeb 12 · 16:20J. Sebl351113113V. Koutnik2681170
LJan 3 · 15:25J. Sebl30118831V. Koutnik4291111113
J. Sebl10
WSep 20 · 06:55J. Sebl1.601114113J. Cousin2.2071280WSep 13 · 14:25L. Rek2.255540J. Sebl1.551111113WSep 13 · 12:55L. Jirka2.258720J. Sebl1.571111113LSep 13 · 12:25L. Rek2.50111189113J. Sebl1.5088111152WSep 13 · 11:25J. Sebl1.57111189113D. Zelezny2.2533111182WSep 12 · 22:30J. Sebl2.25111011113J. Dohnal1.57812961WSep 12 · 21:25D. Zelezny1.839101161J. Sebl1.8311129113WSep 12 · 20:25J. Sebl2.7561111133J. Dohnal1.401196111WSep 12 · 18:55M. Boltik1.617990J. Sebl2.201111113WSep 11 · 17:55J. Sebl1.6011118113D. Zelezny2.20561161
V. Koutnik10
WSep 20 · 07:25Z. Muhlhauser1.9511711952V. Koutnik1.74911311113WSep 19 · 18:30A. Jr2.105111191V. Koutnik1.6511138113LSep 19 · 17:25A. Jr2.2511116113V. Koutnik1.57741151WSep 19 · 16:25V. Koutnik1.4411711113C. Kratochvil2.63911951WSep 19 · 14:55J. Cousin1.9151150V. Koutnik1.801113113WSep 18 · 14:00V. Koutnik1.801311113O. Knazik1.9011840WSep 18 · 12:55P. Vodal2.38511891V. Koutnik1.5311111113WSep 18 · 12:25O. Knazik1.571061191V. Koutnik2.2512119113LSep 18 · 11:25V. Koutnik2.10712781S. Holik1.67111011113WSep 16 · 13:59V. Koutnik1.6111115113T. Rein2.20951181
Upcoming Matches
J. Sebl
Nothing scheduled
V. Koutnik
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.