TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Jachym Sebl
Home
1.60
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171412118––––
Jean-Baptiste Cousin
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:29 and never touched — 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeJachym Sebl to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJachym Sebl above · Jean-Baptiste Cousin below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 63 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Jachym Sebl at 61.6%
63 points played in total.
H2H Jachym Sebl 14–8 Jean-Baptiste Cousin Jean-Baptiste Cousin has won 8 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:29What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (58%)
Sebl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-8 in 22
Sebl
Correct
gap of 6 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sebl 1684 vs Cousin 1437
Sebl
Correct
both rated, 247 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sebl 80% vs Cousin 40%
Sebl
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sebl 90% vs Cousin 50%
Sebl
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sebl +2 · Cousin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Sebl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sebl form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (63%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSebl 1.60 / Cousin 2.20
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Sebl)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13162467
Sebl1.60
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 13) · back after a break
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite65% won 80 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it98% 53 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it78% 64 of 82
Cousin2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 28 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back28% 14 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSebl7wins
AwayCousin3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSebl leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSebl70%7 of 10
AwayCousinn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sebl10Cousin0n = 10Sebl took 10 of 10
S2Sebl7Cousin3n = 10Sebl took 7 of 10
S3Sebl8Cousin2n = 10Sebl took 8 of 10
S4Sebl1Cousin3n = 4Cousin took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSeblCousinS − CBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set100+10of 10Avg pointsper match35.826.9+8.9per matchSweeps60+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSeblCousinBasisWin rate · lifetime305 / 636 vs 232 / 43448%53.5%305 / 636 vs 232 / 434Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.038.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SeblSebl 1.60/Cousin 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.9%
Sebl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sebl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 06:55J. Sebl361114113J. Cousin2771280
WAug 22 · 12:55J. Sebl331111113J. Cousin132470
LAug 10 · 21:58J. Sebl351110771J. Cousin4391211113
WAug 10 · 20:55J. Sebl331111113J. Cousin177550
LAug 7 · 22:30J. Sebl4511811782J. Cousin44411711113
WAug 7 · 21:25J. Sebl3411111113J. Cousin30671161
WJul 7 · 18:50J. Sebl331111113J. Cousin135530
LMay 11 · 20:25J. Sebl4011711832J. Cousin38411111113
WApr 28 · 20:25J. Sebl361211133J. Cousin29108110
WApr 26 · 07:55J. Sebl331111113J. Cousin155640
J. Sebl10
WSep 13 · 14:25L. Rek2.255540J. Sebl1.551111113WSep 13 · 12:55L. Jirka2.258720J. Sebl1.571111113LSep 13 · 12:25L. Rek2.50111189113J. Sebl1.5088111152WSep 13 · 11:25J. Sebl1.57111189113D. Zelezny2.2533111182WSep 12 · 22:30J. Sebl2.25111011113J. Dohnal1.57812961WSep 12 · 21:25D. Zelezny1.839101161J. Sebl1.8311129113WSep 12 · 20:25J. Sebl2.7561111133J. Dohnal1.401196111WSep 12 · 18:55M. Boltik1.617990J. Sebl2.201111113WSep 11 · 17:55J. Sebl1.6011118113D. Zelezny2.20561161WSep 11 · 16:50T. Rein1.67511691J. Sebl2.1011911113
J. Cousin10
LSep 19 · 18:02J. Cousin1.6531030C. Kratochvil2.101112113WSep 19 · 16:55J. Cousin1.5011119113C. Kratochvil2.50741191LSep 19 · 15:55J. Cousin1.4451113972A. Jr2.631191111113LSep 19 · 14:55J. Cousin1.9151150V. Koutnik1.801113113WSep 18 · 22:30M. Boltik1.65610131162J. Cousin2.101112116113LSep 18 · 21:25M. Boltik1.7313911113J. Cousin2.001111661WSep 18 · 20:25J. Cousin1.50101111113C. Kratochvil2.50127991WSep 18 · 18:55Z. Muhlhauser1.7320990J. Cousin2.002211113WSep 16 · 22:09J. Cousin1.531112113C. Kratochvil2.3871070LSep 16 · 21:25J. Cousin1.5741111992T. Rein2.25119411113
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