TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13156427
Played Sep 18Finished
Martin Boltik
Home
1.65
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
61110121311116611
Jean-Baptiste Cousin
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:56 and never touched — 55.0% is still 55.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Boltik to win
55.0%
55.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Boltik above · Jean-Baptiste Cousin below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 97 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Martin Boltik at 55.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Martin Boltik 4–5 Jean-Baptiste Cousin Martin Boltik has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Boltik beat Cousin 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:56What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Boltik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Boltik 1577 vs Cousin 1471
Boltik
Wrong
both rated, 106 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Boltik 100% vs Cousin 60%
Boltik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Boltik 70% vs Cousin 50%
Boltik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Boltik +5 · Cousin -1
Boltik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Boltik) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cousin form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBoltik 1.65 / Cousin 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Boltik)+0.2pp
TT Cup · #13156427
Boltik1.65
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 20 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it75% 15 of 20
Cousin2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 26 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back29% 14 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeBoltik4wins
AwayCousin5wins
3 of 9 to a deciderCousin leads 5–4, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBoltik80%4 of 5
AwayCousin100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Boltik5Cousin4n = 9Boltik took 5 of 9
S2Boltik5Cousin4n = 9Boltik took 5 of 9
S3Boltik3Cousin6n = 9Cousin took 6 of 9
S4Boltik6Cousin2n = 8Boltik took 6 of 8
S5Boltik0Cousin3n = 3Cousin took 3 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home444%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away333%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricBoltikCousinB − CBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match41.740.8+0.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBoltikCousinBasisWin rate · lifetime71 / 118 vs 231 / 42960.2%53.9%71 / 118 vs 231 / 429Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.238.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BoltikBoltik 1.65/Cousin 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Boltik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cousin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 18 · 22:30M. Boltik46610131162J. Cousin511112116113
WSep 18 · 21:25M. Boltik4413911113J. Cousin341111661
LAug 25 · 18:55M. Boltik2681080J. Cousin341112113
WAug 18 · 19:55M. Boltik4011711113J. Cousin33611791
WFeb 6 · 23:45M. Boltik45121111113J. Cousin381081371
LFeb 6 · 19:55M. Boltik359115101J. Cousin3811411123
LJan 18 · 19:50M. Boltik4981481182J. Cousin501112115113
LJan 2 · 22:35M. Boltik52111116772J. Cousin58991811113
WJan 2 · 19:50M. Boltik3811115113J. Cousin31961151
M. Boltik10
WSep 18 · 21:25M. Boltik1.7313911113J. Cousin2.001111661WSep 18 · 19:55Z. Muhlhauser1.736118101M. Boltik2.0011911123WSep 18 · 19:25C. Kratochvil2.25101080M. Boltik1.571212113WSep 12 · 21:58D. Zelezny1.671011561M. Boltik2.1012811113WSep 12 · 20:55M. Boltik2.10111257123J. Dohnal1.678101111102LSep 12 · 19:55M. Boltik1.803115101D. Zelezny1.9111511123LSep 12 · 18:55M. Boltik1.617990J. Sebl2.201111113WAug 25 · 21:55M. Boltik1.57149118123P. Kubat2.251211411102LAug 25 · 20:55M. Boltik1.61561171L. Jirka2.2011119113WAug 25 · 19:55M. Boltik1.731111119113P. Kubat2.0019131142
J. Cousin10
LSep 18 · 21:25M. Boltik1.7313911113J. Cousin2.001111661WSep 18 · 20:25J. Cousin1.50101111113C. Kratochvil2.50127991WSep 18 · 18:55Z. Muhlhauser1.7320990J. Cousin2.002211113WSep 16 · 22:09J. Cousin1.531112113C. Kratochvil2.3871070LSep 16 · 21:25J. Cousin1.5741111992T. Rein2.25119411113WSep 16 · 19:55C. Kratochvil1.8010630J. Cousin1.911211113LSep 16 · 19:25R. Muller1.731112113J. Cousin2.0011030LSep 13 · 17:53J. Cousin2.50331121J. Dohnal1.5011117113WSep 13 · 16:55J. Dohnal1.501110851J. Cousin2.5061211113LSep 13 · 16:25T. Hnizdil1.8011119113J. Cousin1.91751151
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