TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13125001
Played Sep 13Finished
Jaroslav Dohnal
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1161012811511––
Jean-Baptiste Cousin
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:00 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Dohnal to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJaroslav Dohnal above · Jean-Baptiste Cousin below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 74 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Jaroslav Dohnal at 64.1%
74 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Dohnal 33–14 Jean-Baptiste Cousin Jean-Baptiste Cousin has won 14 of their 47 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:00What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Dohnal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-14 in 47
Dohnal
Wrong
gap of 19 in 47, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dohnal 1496 vs Cousin 1411
Dohnal
Wrong
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dohnal 0% vs Cousin 40%
Cousin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dohnal 50% vs Cousin 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dohnal -5 · Cousin -2
Dohnal
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Dohnal) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dohnal form (0%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDohnal 1.50 / Cousin 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Dohnal)+2.4pp
TT Cup · #13125001
Dohnal1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 117 of 210
Up 2–0, closes it92% 59 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it70% 83 of 118
Cousin2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 24 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back30% 13 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDohnal8wins
AwayCousin2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderDohnal leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDohnal80%4 of 5
AwayCousin20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dohnal5Cousin5n = 10split evenly
S2Dohnal4Cousin6n = 10Cousin took 6 of 10
S3Dohnal6Cousin4n = 10Dohnal took 6 of 10
S4Dohnal6Cousin4n = 10Dohnal took 6 of 10
S5Dohnal5Cousin0n = 5Dohnal took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDohnalCousinD − CBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.439.4+3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDohnalCousinBasisWin rate · lifetime403 / 680 vs 234 / 43259.3%54.2%403 / 680 vs 234 / 432Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.638.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DohnalDohnal 1.50/Cousin 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.9%
Dohnal · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cousin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 13 · 20:20J. Dohnal28611381J. Cousin4011711113
WJul 19 · 12:55J. Dohnal3911611113J. Cousin31711581
WJul 18 · 06:55J. Dohnal3911611113J. Cousin35611991
WJul 16 · 18:20J. Dohnal48871111113J. Cousin3311113352
WJul 10 · 20:50J. Dohnal491011116113J. Cousin4712871192
LJul 7 · 20:20J. Dohnal30114871J. Cousin3741111113
WJul 3 · 18:55J. Dohnal49159113113J. Cousin50131171182
WJul 2 · 22:10J. Dohnal481011511113J. Cousin4712811882
WJul 2 · 20:55J. Dohnal51991111113J. Cousin4311115972
WJun 27 · 17:59J. Dohnal4311117143J. Cousin314411121
J. Dohnal10
LSep 13 · 15:55J. Dohnal1.839111121P. Vodal1.8311138113LSep 13 · 14:55J. Dohnal2.20781191T. Hnizdil1.6111117113LSep 12 · 22:30J. Sebl2.25111011113J. Dohnal1.57812961LSep 12 · 20:55M. Boltik2.10111257123J. Dohnal1.678101111102LSep 12 · 20:25J. Sebl2.7561111133J. Dohnal1.401196111WSep 12 · 19:25J. Dohnal1.67101111113D. Zelezny2.10129891WSep 8 · 21:48J. Dohnal1.611111113T. Rein2.205870WSep 8 · 20:50B. Budik1.75781261J. Dohnal1.95111110113WSep 8 · 19:50J. Dohnal1.611111113L. Jirka2.209570WSep 8 · 18:20T. Rein2.2598111162J. Dohnal1.57111167113
J. Cousin10
LSep 13 · 16:25T. Hnizdil1.8011119113J. Cousin1.91751151LSep 13 · 15:25J. Cousin1.73411771P. Vodal2.0011711113WAug 25 · 22:25L. Jirka1.57145571J. Cousin2.25121111113WAug 25 · 21:25P. Kubat2.255990J. Cousin1.571111113LAug 25 · 20:25J. Cousin2.00871171L. Jirka1.7311117113WAug 25 · 18:55M. Boltik1.5381080J. Cousin2.381112113WAug 23 · 13:58V. Koutnik1.8381181192J. Cousin1.83119118113LAug 23 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.91111110113J. Cousin1.80971221LAug 23 · 12:25B. Budik1.761112113J. Cousin1.9051080LAug 23 · 11:25J. Cousin1.801111108102P. Vodal1.91961211123
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