TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13125045
Played Sep 13Finished
Jaroslav Dohnal
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 2
Set by set
911111320––––
Petr Vodal
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Dohnal to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJaroslav Dohnal above · Petr Vodal below
Set 1 · 9-9
Point 18 set 1, 9-9 — our read held Jaroslav Dohnal at 54.0%
18 points drawn · the score is 28 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Jaroslav Dohnal 47–41 Petr Vodal Petr Vodal has won 41 of their 88 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 14:15What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Vodal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
47-41 in 88
Dohnal
Wrong
gap of 6 in 88, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dohnal 1541 vs Vodal 1380
Dohnal
Wrong
both rated, 162 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dohnal 20% vs Vodal 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dohnal 60% vs Vodal 30%
Dohnal
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dohnal -4 · Vodal +1
Dohnal
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dohnal)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vodal form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDohnal 1.83 / Vodal 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dohnal)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13125045
Dohnal1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Vodal1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDohnal6wins
AwayVodal4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderDohnal leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDohnal62.5%5 of 8
AwayVodaln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dohnal8Vodal2n = 10Dohnal took 8 of 10
S2Dohnal5Vodal5n = 10split evenly
S3Dohnal1Vodal9n = 10Vodal took 9 of 10
S4Dohnal4Vodal6n = 10Vodal took 6 of 10
S5Dohnal5Vodal1n = 6Dohnal took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDohnalVodalD − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.943.8−0.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDohnalVodalBasisWin rate · lifetime403 / 679 vs 251 / 49359.4%50.9%403 / 679 vs 251 / 493Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.639.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DohnalDohnal 1.83/Vodal 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Dohnal · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–2
Vodal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal41111135113P. Vodal4164111192
WSep 6 · 06:20J. Dohnal511181011113P. Vodal4571112962
WAug 30 · 13:30J. Dohnal50121197113P. Vodal46107111172
LAug 30 · 12:50J. Dohnal42126311102P. Vodal501011116123
LAug 29 · 10:55J. Dohnal32118491P. Vodal4291111113
LAug 25 · 15:50J. Dohnal31119381P. Vodal4071111113
WAug 15 · 14:05J. Dohnal53151485113P. Vodal561312111192
LAug 15 · 10:55J. Dohnal28751151P. Vodal3811115113
WJul 18 · 10:34J. Dohnal599111216113P. Vodal50113141482
WJul 18 · 08:25J. Dohnal4211119113P. Vodal30861151
J. Dohnal10
LSep 13 · 14:55J. Dohnal2.20781191T. Hnizdil1.6111117113LSep 12 · 22:30J. Sebl2.25111011113J. Dohnal1.57812961LSep 12 · 20:55M. Boltik2.10111257123J. Dohnal1.678101111102LSep 12 · 20:25J. Sebl2.7561111133J. Dohnal1.401196111WSep 12 · 19:25J. Dohnal1.67101111113D. Zelezny2.10129891WSep 8 · 21:48J. Dohnal1.611111113T. Rein2.205870WSep 8 · 20:50B. Budik1.75781261J. Dohnal1.95111110113WSep 8 · 19:50J. Dohnal1.611111113L. Jirka2.209570WSep 8 · 18:20T. Rein2.2598111162J. Dohnal1.57111167113WSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192
P. Vodal10
WSep 13 · 15:25J. Cousin1.73411771P. Vodal2.0011711113LSep 12 · 14:02V. Koutnik1.5071312113P. Vodal2.4011111081LSep 12 · 13:25P. Vodal2.1012770V. Koutnik1.671411113LSep 12 · 11:55L. Rek1.801111133P. Vodal1.9158110LSep 12 · 11:25C. Kratochvil2.3811156113P. Vodal1.539131171LSep 12 · 10:35P. Vodal2.455890B. Budik1.501111113LSep 12 · 09:25P. Vodal2.101284101B. Budik1.60101111123WSep 12 · 07:55T. Rein2.1071260P. Vodal1.671114113WSep 12 · 07:25C. Kratochvil2.25610110P. Vodal1.571112133LSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192
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