TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13158175
Played Sep 19Finished
Jean-Baptiste Cousin
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
5111113511––––
Vojtech Koutnik
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVojtech Koutnik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJean-Baptiste Cousin above · Vojtech Koutnik below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 56 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Vojtech Koutnik at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Jean-Baptiste Cousin 9–11 Vojtech Koutnik Jean-Baptiste Cousin has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:05What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Koutnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-11 in 20
Koutnik
Correct
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cousin 1469 vs Koutnik 1595
Koutnik
Correct
both rated, 126 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cousin 80% vs Koutnik 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cousin 60% vs Koutnik 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cousin +1 · Koutnik +3
Koutnik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Koutnik) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koutnik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCousin 1.91 / Koutnik 1.80
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Koutnik)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13158175
Cousin1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 28 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back29% 14 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Koutnik1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 18)
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite68% won 42 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it72% 31 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCousin5wins
AwayKoutnik5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCousin100%4 of 4
AwayKoutnik83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cousin4Koutnik6n = 10Koutnik took 6 of 10
S2Cousin5Koutnik5n = 10split evenly
S3Cousin8Koutnik2n = 10Cousin took 8 of 10
S4Cousin4Koutnik5n = 9Koutnik took 5 of 9
S5Cousin1Koutnik2n = 3Koutnik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCousinKoutnikC − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.137.7+1.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCousinKoutnikBasisWin rate · lifetime231 / 429 vs 170 / 35753.9%47.6%231 / 429 vs 170 / 357Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoutnikCousin 1.91/Koutnik 1.80
Hit
What we said
54.7%
Koutnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Koutnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 13:58J. Cousin50119118113V. Koutnik4781181192
LAug 23 · 12:55J. Cousin30971221V. Koutnik43111110113
WAug 16 · 10:55J. Cousin4211911113V. Koutnik25411371
LMar 28 · 16:55J. Cousin45911114102V. Koutnik48117711123
WFeb 28 · 16:25J. Cousin3811115113V. Koutnik29651171
WFeb 12 · 15:50J. Cousin351311113V. Koutnik2711970
LFeb 8 · 09:20J. Cousin30661171V. Koutnik4011117113
WFeb 7 · 14:25J. Cousin4071111113V. Koutnik27118531
LFeb 1 · 09:25J. Cousin36891181V. Koutnik3911116113
LJan 2 · 18:55J. Cousin45101371142V. Koutnik521211117113
J. Cousin10
WSep 18 · 22:30M. Boltik1.65610131162J. Cousin2.101112116113LSep 18 · 21:25M. Boltik1.7313911113J. Cousin2.001111661WSep 18 · 20:25J. Cousin1.50101111113C. Kratochvil2.50127991WSep 18 · 18:55Z. Muhlhauser1.7320990J. Cousin2.002211113WSep 16 · 22:09J. Cousin1.531112113C. Kratochvil2.3871070LSep 16 · 21:25J. Cousin1.5741111992T. Rein2.25119411113WSep 16 · 19:55C. Kratochvil1.8010630J. Cousin1.911211113LSep 16 · 19:25R. Muller1.731112113J. Cousin2.0011030LSep 13 · 17:53J. Cousin2.50331121J. Dohnal1.5011117113WSep 13 · 16:55J. Dohnal1.501110851J. Cousin2.5061211113
V. Koutnik10
WSep 18 · 14:00V. Koutnik1.801311113O. Knazik1.9011840WSep 18 · 12:55P. Vodal2.38511891V. Koutnik1.5311111113WSep 18 · 12:25O. Knazik1.571061191V. Koutnik2.2512119113LSep 18 · 11:25V. Koutnik2.10712781S. Holik1.67111011113WSep 16 · 13:59V. Koutnik1.6111115113T. Rein2.20951181WSep 16 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.61118711113T. Rein2.2051111572LSep 16 · 11:55V. Koutnik2.2515118362S. Holik1.571381111113LSep 16 · 10:55V. Koutnik1.8311680F. Dvorak1.831311113WSep 12 · 14:02V. Koutnik1.5071312113P. Vodal2.4011111081WSep 12 · 13:25P. Vodal2.1012770V. Koutnik1.671411113
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