TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13149285
Played Sep 18Finished
Vojtech Koutnik
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111210711811––
Simon Holik
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:38 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeSimon Holik to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVojtech Koutnik above · Simon Holik below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 77 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Simon Holik at 62.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Vojtech Koutnik 1–4 Simon Holik Vojtech Koutnik has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:38What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Holik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Holik
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koutnik 1592 vs Holik 1550
Koutnik
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koutnik 60% vs Holik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koutnik 70% vs Holik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koutnik +2 · Holik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Holik) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koutnik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoutnik 2.10 / Holik 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Holik)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13149285
Koutnik2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 41 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back30% 14 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Holik1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
0%takes the first set · 0 of 10
As favourite52% won 27 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKoutnik1wins
AwayHolik4wins
2 of 5 to a deciderHolik leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoutnikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHolik100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koutnik2Holik3n = 5Holik took 3 of 5
S2Koutnik1Holik4n = 5Holik took 4 of 5
S3Koutnik1Holik4n = 5Holik took 4 of 5
S4Koutnik1Holik2n = 3Holik took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricKoutnikHolikK − HBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match33.441.6−8.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoutnikHolikBasisWin rate · lifetime167 / 354 vs 110 / 21047.2%52.4%167 / 354 vs 110 / 210Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolikKoutnik 2.10/Holik 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.4%
Holik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Holik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 16 · 11:55V. Koutnik4315118362S. Holik541381111113
LJul 27 · 14:55V. Koutnik279990S. Holik331111113
WJun 19 · 08:55V. Koutnik47145611113S. Holik45121111562
LMar 11 · 17:20V. Koutnik207760S. Holik331111113
LMar 2 · 13:25V. Koutnik303411121S. Holik4311117143
V. Koutnik10
WSep 18 · 12:55P. Vodal2.38511891V. Koutnik1.5311111113WSep 18 · 12:25O. Knazik1.571061191V. Koutnik2.2512119113WSep 16 · 13:59V. Koutnik1.6111115113T. Rein2.20951181WSep 16 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.61118711113T. Rein2.2051111572LSep 16 · 11:55V. Koutnik2.2515118362S. Holik1.571381111113LSep 16 · 10:55V. Koutnik1.8311680F. Dvorak1.831311113WSep 12 · 14:02V. Koutnik1.5071312113P. Vodal2.4011111081WSep 12 · 13:25P. Vodal2.1012770V. Koutnik1.671411113WSep 12 · 12:25V. Koutnik1.401111511113C. Kratochvil2.7513811322LSep 12 · 10:55L. Rek1.801112113V. Koutnik1.9191080
S. Holik10
LSep 18 · 11:55P. Vodal1.83131112113S. Holik1.8311131081WSep 16 · 14:30F. Dvorak1.6111116782S. Holik2.20651111113LSep 16 · 13:25S. Holik1.73711651F. Dvorak2.0011911113WSep 16 · 11:55V. Koutnik2.2515118362S. Holik1.571381111113WSep 16 · 11:25T. Rein2.25118851S. Holik1.5761111113LSep 14 · 14:13S. Holik1.8351191162O. Knazik1.83119118113WSep 14 · 13:25S. Holik2.255101111143T. Hnizdil1.57111248122WSep 14 · 11:55O. Knazik1.67117691S. Holik2.1051111113LSep 14 · 11:25J. Osmera1.91117811113S. Holik1.8051111622WSep 2 · 10:09S. Holik1.571011111113T. Rein2.2512115572
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