TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13140917
Played Sep 16Finished
Frantisek Dvorak
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116115611711811
Simon Holik
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingFrantisek Dvorak above · Simon Holik below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 87 set 5, 8-11
87 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Dvorak 7–8 Simon Holik Frantisek Dvorak has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Dvorak beat Holik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Dvorak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 1.61 / Holik 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Dvorak)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13140917
Dvorak1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite68% won 45 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it97% 28 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it92% 33 of 36
Holik2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog43% won 15 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back28% 7 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back17% 2 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDvorak6wins
AwayHolik4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDvorak leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvorak71.4%5 of 7
AwayHolik66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak7Holik3n = 10Dvorak took 7 of 10
S2Dvorak3Holik7n = 10Holik took 7 of 10
S3Dvorak5Holik5n = 10split evenly
S4Dvorak5Holik5n = 10split evenly
S5Dvorak3Holik1n = 4Dvorak took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDvorakHolikD − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match44.041.6+2.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakHolikBasisWin rate · lifetime163 / 299 vs 109 / 20954.5%52.2%163 / 299 vs 109 / 209Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakDvorak 1.61/Holik 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Holik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 13:25F. Dvorak4211911113S. Holik29711651
WJul 29 · 13:50F. Dvorak44118112123S. Holik41511411102
LJul 29 · 12:20F. Dvorak381012971S. Holik44121011113
LMar 18 · 13:55F. Dvorak381179111S. Holik4491111133
WFeb 26 · 13:50F. Dvorak46111212113S. Holik337141021
WJan 18 · 14:50F. Dvorak541112911113S. Holik4771411692
LJan 18 · 12:20F. Dvorak285112101S. Holik3911511123
WDec 31 · 12:25F. Dvorak589111411133S. Holik54118168112
WSep 6 · 17:50F. Dvorak4211911113S. Holik33811591
LSep 6 · 15:20F. Dvorak50118121092S. Holik528111012113
F. Dvorak10
WSep 16 · 13:25S. Holik1.73711651F. Dvorak2.0011911113WSep 16 · 12:25F. Dvorak1.331111113T. Rein3.253560WSep 16 · 10:55V. Koutnik1.8311680F. Dvorak1.831311113LSep 10 · 10:35V. Koutnik1.671111113F. Dvorak2.108870WSep 10 · 08:55F. Dvorak2.10117911113J. Osmera1.6781111652WSep 10 · 07:55F. Dvorak1.331111113T. Rein3.257780LSep 9 · 14:00T. Hnizdil1.2791111113F. Dvorak3.30118861WSep 9 · 12:20F. Dvorak1.4416119113T. Jr2.631461191WSep 9 · 11:20F. Dvorak1.731111113A. Jr2.008680LSep 9 · 10:20F. Dvorak3.2517170T. Hnizdil1.331911113
S. Holik10
LSep 16 · 13:25S. Holik1.73711651F. Dvorak2.0011911113WSep 16 · 11:55V. Koutnik2.2515118362S. Holik1.571381111113WSep 16 · 11:25T. Rein2.25118851S. Holik1.5761111113LSep 14 · 14:13S. Holik1.8351191162O. Knazik1.83119118113WSep 14 · 13:25S. Holik2.255101111143T. Hnizdil1.57111248122WSep 14 · 11:55O. Knazik1.67117691S. Holik2.1051111113LSep 14 · 11:25J. Osmera1.91117811113S. Holik1.8051111622WSep 2 · 10:09S. Holik1.571011111113T. Rein2.2512115572LSep 2 · 09:25S. Holik1.95511116102B. Budik1.77115811123WSep 2 · 07:55T. Rein2.2561111772S. Holik1.57118811113
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