TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13149346
Played Sep 18Finished
Ondrej Knazik
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012611119911––
Vojtech Koutnik
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:58 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeOndrej Knazik to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Knazik above · Vojtech Koutnik below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 79 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Ondrej Knazik at 58.9%
79 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Knazik 12–11 Vojtech Koutnik Vojtech Koutnik has won 11 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:58What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Knazik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-11 in 23
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Knazik 1530 vs Koutnik 1578
Koutnik
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Knazik 40% vs Koutnik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Knazik 40% vs Koutnik 60%
Koutnik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Knazik -2 · Koutnik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Knazik) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Knazik form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKnazik 1.57 / Koutnik 2.25
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Knazik)-2.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13149346
Knazik1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 66 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it90% 34 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it63% 45 of 71
Koutnik2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 41 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back30% 14 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKnazik7wins
AwayKoutnik3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKnazik leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKnazik100%4 of 4
AwayKoutnik50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Knazik4Koutnik6n = 10Koutnik took 6 of 10
S2Knazik7Koutnik3n = 10Knazik took 7 of 10
S3Knazik6Koutnik4n = 10Knazik took 6 of 10
S4Knazik4Koutnik2n = 6Knazik took 4 of 6
S5Knazik2Koutnik1n = 3Knazik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKnazikKoutnikKnazik − KoutnikBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.133.7+2.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKnazikKoutnikBasisWin rate · lifetime448 / 873 vs 167 / 35451.3%47.2%448 / 873 vs 167 / 354Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KnazikKnazik 1.57/Koutnik 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.1%
Knazik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Koutnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 14:39O. Knazik4211119113V. Koutnik25441161
WSep 3 · 10:55O. Knazik3961111113V. Koutnik35118971
WAug 1 · 11:55O. Knazik4181111113V. Koutnik26113661
WJun 27 · 07:55O. Knazik43611114113V. Koutnik4211671172
LApr 3 · 18:05O. Knazik217860V. Koutnik331111113
WApr 3 · 15:25O. Knazik331111113V. Koutnik225980
WMar 27 · 12:50O. Knazik50139611113V. Koutnik47111111682
LMar 20 · 14:25O. Knazik4461111972V. Koutnik50119811113
WMar 11 · 16:20O. Knazik331111113V. Koutnik247980
LMar 8 · 11:05O. Knazik154740V. Koutnik331111113
O. Knazik10
LSep 18 · 13:25S. Holik1.801513113O. Knazik1.91131180LSep 18 · 10:55P. Vodal2.201111113O. Knazik1.616350LSep 15 · 13:54M. Filipek2.20811711113O. Knazik1.6111711972WSep 15 · 12:20J. Osmera1.73711651O. Knazik2.0011911113WSep 15 · 11:50T. Hnizdil1.503411111O. Knazik2.5011117133LSep 15 · 10:50O. Knazik1.57111111642M. Filipek2.25138911113WSep 14 · 14:13S. Holik1.8351191162O. Knazik1.83119118113LSep 14 · 12:55O. Knazik1.835111071J. Osmera1.8311412113LSep 14 · 11:55O. Knazik1.67117691S. Holik2.1051111113LSep 14 · 10:55O. Knazik2.2548100T. Hnizdil1.571111123
V. Koutnik10
WSep 18 · 12:55P. Vodal2.38511891V. Koutnik1.5311111113LSep 18 · 11:25V. Koutnik2.10712781S. Holik1.67111011113WSep 16 · 13:59V. Koutnik1.6111115113T. Rein2.20951181WSep 16 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.61118711113T. Rein2.2051111572LSep 16 · 11:55V. Koutnik2.2515118362S. Holik1.571381111113LSep 16 · 10:55V. Koutnik1.8311680F. Dvorak1.831311113WSep 12 · 14:02V. Koutnik1.5071312113P. Vodal2.4011111081WSep 12 · 13:25P. Vodal2.1012770V. Koutnik1.671411113WSep 12 · 12:25V. Koutnik1.401111511113C. Kratochvil2.7513811322LSep 12 · 10:55L. Rek1.801112113V. Koutnik1.9191080
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