TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13149342
Played Sep 18Finished
Simon Holik
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
15131311118––––
Ondrej Knazik
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSimon Holik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSimon Holik above · Ondrej Knazik below
Set 1 · 15-13
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 71 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Simon Holik at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Simon Holik 15–13 Ondrej Knazik Ondrej Knazik has won 13 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:58What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Holik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-13 in 28
Holik
Correct
gap of 2 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holik 1534 vs Knazik 1520
Holik
Correct
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holik 60% vs Knazik 40%
Holik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holik 60% vs Knazik 30%
Holik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holik -1 · Knazik -3
Knazik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Holik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Knazik form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolik 1.80 / Knazik 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Holik)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13149342
Holik1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite52% won 27 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Knazik1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 66 of 167
Down 0–1, comes back20% 19 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolik4wins
AwayKnazik6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKnazik leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolikn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKnazik66.7%6 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holik1Knazik9n = 10Knazik took 9 of 10
S2Holik8Knazik2n = 10Holik took 8 of 10
S3Holik4Knazik6n = 10Knazik took 6 of 10
S4Holik4Knazik3n = 7Holik took 4 of 7
S5Holik1Knazik2n = 3Knazik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolikKnazikH − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match36.239.1−2.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolikKnazikBasisWin rate · lifetime108 / 201 vs 448 / 87453.7%51.3%108 / 201 vs 448 / 874Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.639.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolikHolik 1.80/Knazik 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Holik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Holik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 14:13S. Holik4251191162O. Knazik50119118113
WSep 14 · 11:55S. Holik3851111113O. Knazik33117691
LJul 1 · 13:25S. Holik239860O. Knazik331111113
LMay 2 · 10:55S. Holik426129151O. Knazik49111011173
WApr 27 · 11:20S. Holik3961111113O. Knazik29116841
LApr 26 · 13:25S. Holik34812861O. Knazik43111011113
LApr 26 · 10:20S. Holik42511101152O. Knazik49116129113
WApr 20 · 12:50S. Holik44411126113O. Knazik49119101182
WApr 13 · 12:55S. Holik331111113O. Knazik217860
LMar 30 · 12:50S. Holik2586110O. Knazik351111133
S. Holik10
LSep 18 · 11:55P. Vodal1.83131112113S. Holik1.8311131081WSep 18 · 11:25V. Koutnik2.10712781S. Holik1.67111011113WSep 16 · 14:30F. Dvorak1.6111116782S. Holik2.20651111113LSep 16 · 13:25S. Holik1.73711651F. Dvorak2.0011911113WSep 16 · 11:55V. Koutnik2.2515118362S. Holik1.571381111113WSep 16 · 11:25T. Rein2.25118851S. Holik1.5761111113LSep 14 · 14:13S. Holik1.8351191162O. Knazik1.83119118113WSep 14 · 13:25S. Holik2.255101111143T. Hnizdil1.57111248122WSep 14 · 11:55O. Knazik1.67117691S. Holik2.1051111113LSep 14 · 11:25J. Osmera1.91117811113S. Holik1.8051111622
O. Knazik10
LSep 18 · 14:00V. Koutnik1.801311113O. Knazik1.9011840LSep 18 · 12:25O. Knazik1.571061191V. Koutnik2.2512119113LSep 18 · 10:55P. Vodal2.201111113O. Knazik1.616350LSep 15 · 13:54M. Filipek2.20811711113O. Knazik1.6111711972WSep 15 · 12:20J. Osmera1.73711651O. Knazik2.0011911113WSep 15 · 11:50T. Hnizdil1.503411111O. Knazik2.5011117133LSep 15 · 10:50O. Knazik1.57111111642M. Filipek2.25138911113WSep 14 · 14:13S. Holik1.8351191162O. Knazik1.83119118113LSep 14 · 12:55O. Knazik1.835111071J. Osmera1.8311412113LSep 14 · 11:55O. Knazik1.67117691S. Holik2.1051111113
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