TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13149336
Played Sep 18Finished
Petr Vodal
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
131111131210118––
Simon Holik
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:00 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSimon Holik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Vodal above · Simon Holik below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 89 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Simon Holik at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Petr Vodal 11–9 Simon Holik Simon Holik has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:00What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Holik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-9 in 20
Vodal
Correct
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vodal 1430 vs Holik 1563
Holik
Wrong
both rated, 133 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vodal 60% vs Holik 80%
Holik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vodal 30% vs Holik 70%
Holik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vodal +1 · Holik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Holik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVodal 1.83 / Holik 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Holik)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13149336
Vodal1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Holik1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVodal6wins
AwayHolik4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVodal leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVodal83.3%5 of 6
AwayHolik75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vodal6Holik4n = 10Vodal took 6 of 10
S2Vodal7Holik3n = 10Vodal took 7 of 10
S3Vodal7Holik3n = 10Vodal took 7 of 10
S4Vodal2Holik5n = 7Holik took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVodalHolikV − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.238.7+1.5per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVodalHolikBasisWin rate · lifetime250 / 491 vs 108 / 20150.9%53.7%250 / 491 vs 108 / 201Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolikVodal 1.83/Holik 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Holik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vodal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 10:50P. Vodal34812771S. Holik43111011113
LAug 29 · 14:34P. Vodal4141710101S. Holik50111512123
WAug 29 · 11:55P. Vodal50121476113S. Holik531012111192
WJul 26 · 09:29P. Vodal351212113S. Holik26101060
WJul 26 · 06:50P. Vodal331111113S. Holik228770
WOct 12 · 12:50P. Vodal4491111133S. Holik401199111
WSep 7 · 13:40P. Vodal45121012113S. Holik4010121081
WSep 7 · 11:10P. Vodal341112113S. Holik2461080
LJun 15 · 11:10P. Vodal50119119102S. Holik50811811123
LJun 15 · 06:50P. Vodal368101171S. Holik3911125113
P. Vodal10
LSep 18 · 12:55P. Vodal2.38511891V. Koutnik1.5311111113WSep 18 · 10:55P. Vodal2.201111113O. Knazik1.616350LSep 13 · 18:24T. Hnizdil1.1411611113P. Vodal5.00311571LSep 13 · 17:25P. Vodal3.508740T. Hnizdil1.281111113WSep 13 · 15:55J. Dohnal1.839111121P. Vodal1.8311138113WSep 13 · 15:25J. Cousin1.73411771P. Vodal2.0011711113LSep 12 · 14:02V. Koutnik1.5071312113P. Vodal2.4011111081LSep 12 · 13:25P. Vodal2.1012770V. Koutnik1.671411113LSep 12 · 11:55L. Rek1.801111133P. Vodal1.9158110LSep 12 · 11:25C. Kratochvil2.3811156113P. Vodal1.539131171
S. Holik10
WSep 18 · 11:25V. Koutnik2.10712781S. Holik1.67111011113WSep 16 · 14:30F. Dvorak1.6111116782S. Holik2.20651111113LSep 16 · 13:25S. Holik1.73711651F. Dvorak2.0011911113WSep 16 · 11:55V. Koutnik2.2515118362S. Holik1.571381111113WSep 16 · 11:25T. Rein2.25118851S. Holik1.5761111113LSep 14 · 14:13S. Holik1.8351191162O. Knazik1.83119118113WSep 14 · 13:25S. Holik2.255101111143T. Hnizdil1.57111248122WSep 14 · 11:55O. Knazik1.67117691S. Holik2.1051111113LSep 14 · 11:25J. Osmera1.91117811113S. Holik1.8051111622WSep 2 · 10:09S. Holik1.571011111113T. Rein2.2512115572
Upcoming Matches
P. Vodal
Nothing scheduled
S. Holik
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