TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13149343
Played Sep 18Finished
Petr Vodal
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511111811911––
Vojtech Koutnik
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:58 and never touched — 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeVojtech Koutnik to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Vodal above · Vojtech Koutnik below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-1
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 67 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Vojtech Koutnik at 63.6%
67 points played in total.
H2H Petr Vodal 16–19 Vojtech Koutnik Petr Vodal has won 16 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:58What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Koutnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-19 in 35
Koutnik
Correct
gap of 3 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vodal 1461 vs Koutnik 1589
Koutnik
Correct
both rated, 128 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vodal 60% vs Koutnik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vodal 40% vs Koutnik 60%
Koutnik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vodal +2 · Koutnik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Koutnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vodal form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVodal 2.38 / Koutnik 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Koutnik)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13149343
Vodal2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 46 of 99
Down 0–1, comes back32% 18 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 30
Koutnik1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 40 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it71% 29 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVodal3wins
AwayKoutnik7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKoutnik leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVodal50%3 of 6
AwayKoutnik100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vodal6Koutnik4n = 10Vodal took 6 of 10
S2Vodal2Koutnik8n = 10Koutnik took 8 of 10
S3Vodal2Koutnik8n = 10Koutnik took 8 of 10
S4Vodal4Koutnik4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVodalKoutnikV − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.239.2−4.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVodalKoutnikBasisWin rate · lifetime251 / 492 vs 168 / 35551%47.3%251 / 492 vs 168 / 355Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoutnikVodal 2.38/Koutnik 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.6%
Koutnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Koutnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 14:02P. Vodal4011111081V. Koutnik4371312113
LSep 12 · 13:25P. Vodal2612770V. Koutnik361411113
WSep 11 · 06:55P. Vodal45116611113V. Koutnik4361111872
WAug 23 · 11:55P. Vodal4211128113V. Koutnik367101181
LAug 16 · 14:04P. Vodal36911881V. Koutnik4111811113
LAug 16 · 11:55P. Vodal33891151V. Koutnik3911116113
WAug 1 · 13:54P. Vodal3911611113V. Koutnik33911581
LAug 1 · 12:55P. Vodal156270V. Koutnik331111113
LJul 19 · 08:25P. Vodal4513681172V. Koutnik521111118113
LJul 17 · 16:25P. Vodal31113981V. Koutnik3631111113
P. Vodal10
WSep 18 · 11:55P. Vodal1.83131112113S. Holik1.8311131081WSep 18 · 10:55P. Vodal2.201111113O. Knazik1.616350LSep 13 · 18:24T. Hnizdil1.1411611113P. Vodal5.00311571LSep 13 · 17:25P. Vodal3.508740T. Hnizdil1.281111113WSep 13 · 15:55J. Dohnal1.839111121P. Vodal1.8311138113WSep 13 · 15:25J. Cousin1.73411771P. Vodal2.0011711113LSep 12 · 14:02V. Koutnik1.5071312113P. Vodal2.4011111081LSep 12 · 13:25P. Vodal2.1012770V. Koutnik1.671411113LSep 12 · 11:55L. Rek1.801111133P. Vodal1.9158110LSep 12 · 11:25C. Kratochvil2.3811156113P. Vodal1.539131171
V. Koutnik10
WSep 18 · 12:25O. Knazik1.571061191V. Koutnik2.2512119113LSep 18 · 11:25V. Koutnik2.10712781S. Holik1.67111011113WSep 16 · 13:59V. Koutnik1.6111115113T. Rein2.20951181WSep 16 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.61118711113T. Rein2.2051111572LSep 16 · 11:55V. Koutnik2.2515118362S. Holik1.571381111113LSep 16 · 10:55V. Koutnik1.8311680F. Dvorak1.831311113WSep 12 · 14:02V. Koutnik1.5071312113P. Vodal2.4011111081WSep 12 · 13:25P. Vodal2.1012770V. Koutnik1.671411113WSep 12 · 12:25V. Koutnik1.401111511113C. Kratochvil2.7513811322LSep 12 · 10:55L. Rek1.801112113V. Koutnik1.9191080
Upcoming Matches
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V. Koutnik
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