TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Zdenek Muhlhauser
Home
1.95
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119711113911511
Vojtech Koutnik
Away
1.74
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVojtech Koutnik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZdenek Muhlhauser above · Vojtech Koutnik below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 88 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Vojtech Koutnik at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Muhlhauser 16–10 Vojtech Koutnik Vojtech Koutnik has won 10 of their 26 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:45What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.74 (53%)
Koutnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-10 in 26
Muhlhauser
Wrong
gap of 6 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Muhlhauser 1530 vs Koutnik 1625
Koutnik
Correct
both rated, 95 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Muhlhauser 40% vs Koutnik 80%
Koutnik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Muhlhauser 60% vs Koutnik 80%
Koutnik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Muhlhauser +1 · Koutnik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Koutnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koutnik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMuhlhauser 1.95 / Koutnik 1.74
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Koutnik)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13162160
Muhlhauser1.95
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 18)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog59% won 16 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back29% 4 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Koutnik1.74
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite68% won 45 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it74% 34 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMuhlhauser5wins
AwayKoutnik5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMuhlhauser50%3 of 6
AwayKoutnik50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Muhlhauser6Koutnik4n = 10Muhlhauser took 6 of 10
S2Muhlhauser6Koutnik4n = 10Muhlhauser took 6 of 10
S3Muhlhauser5Koutnik5n = 10split evenly
S4Muhlhauser1Koutnik6n = 7Koutnik took 6 of 7
S5Muhlhauser3Koutnik2n = 5Muhlhauser took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMuhlhauserKoutnikM − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.140.4+0.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMuhlhauserKoutnikBasisWin rate · lifetime59 / 117 vs 175 / 36350.4%48.2%59 / 117 vs 175 / 363Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoutnikMuhlhauser 1.95/Koutnik 1.74
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Koutnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Koutnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 07:25Z. Muhlhauser4311711952V. Koutnik45911311113
WJul 27 · 16:25Z. Muhlhauser47711117113V. Koutnik4311781162
WJun 27 · 06:55Z. Muhlhauser507111011113V. Koutnik4511812772
LMay 18 · 15:25Z. Muhlhauser41101110101V. Koutnik4212612123
WMar 21 · 11:00Z. Muhlhauser341111123V. Koutnik2192100
LMar 21 · 07:55Z. Muhlhauser33151080V. Koutnik401712113
LMar 9 · 15:55Z. Muhlhauser401561181V. Koutnik48131113113
WMar 8 · 17:25Z. Muhlhauser331111113V. Koutnik184590
LFeb 16 · 19:20Z. Muhlhauser3711511642V. Koutnik47811611113
WFeb 16 · 16:25Z. Muhlhauser531111115153V. Koutnik55991311132
Z. Muhlhauser10
WSep 20 · 08:25J. Cousin2.2311620Z. Muhlhauser1.511311113WSep 18 · 21:58C. Kratochvil2.00712120Z. Muhlhauser1.731114143LSep 18 · 20:55Z. Muhlhauser1.73115461C. Kratochvil2.0081111113LSep 18 · 19:55Z. Muhlhauser1.736118101M. Boltik2.0011911123LSep 18 · 18:55Z. Muhlhauser1.7320990J. Cousin2.002211113WAug 22 · 10:33Z. Muhlhauser1.8011139113P. Vodal1.919111191LAug 22 · 09:25Z. Muhlhauser1.5371151192P. Vodal2.38113116113WAug 22 · 07:55T. Rein3.008970Z. Muhlhauser1.361111113WAug 22 · 07:25A. Jr2.3811740Z. Muhlhauser1.531311113WAug 15 · 14:35O. Knazik2.20167111162Z. Muhlhauser1.61181137113
V. Koutnik10
WSep 20 · 07:55J. Sebl1.8591390V. Koutnik1.851115113WSep 19 · 18:30A. Jr2.105111191V. Koutnik1.6511138113LSep 19 · 17:25A. Jr2.2511116113V. Koutnik1.57741151WSep 19 · 16:25V. Koutnik1.4411711113C. Kratochvil2.63911951WSep 19 · 14:55J. Cousin1.9151150V. Koutnik1.801113113WSep 18 · 14:00V. Koutnik1.801311113O. Knazik1.9011840WSep 18 · 12:55P. Vodal2.38511891V. Koutnik1.5311111113WSep 18 · 12:25O. Knazik1.571061191V. Koutnik2.2512119113LSep 18 · 11:25V. Koutnik2.10712781S. Holik1.67111011113WSep 16 · 13:59V. Koutnik1.6111115113T. Rein2.20951181
Upcoming Matches
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V. Koutnik
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