TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13158382
Played Sep 19Finished
Ales Brandtl Jr
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117114611115––
Vojtech Koutnik
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:48 and never touched — 64.2% is still 64.2%
Graded at full timeVojtech Koutnik to win
64.2%
64.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAles Brandtl Jr above · Vojtech Koutnik below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 66 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Vojtech Koutnik at 64.2%
66 points played in total.
H2H Ales Brandtl Jr 9–12 Vojtech Koutnik Ales Brandtl Jr has won 9 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:48What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Koutnik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-12 in 21
Koutnik
Wrong
gap of 3 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1404 vs Koutnik 1598
Koutnik
Wrong
both rated, 195 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 40% vs Koutnik 100%
Koutnik
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 40% vs Koutnik 70%
Koutnik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +1 · Koutnik +5
Koutnik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Koutnik) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koutnik form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.25 / Koutnik 1.57
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Koutnik)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13158382
Jr2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 71 of 168
Down 0–1, comes back28% 30 of 108
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 62
Koutnik1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite68% won 42 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it72% 31 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr3wins
AwayKoutnik7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKoutnik leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr0%0 of 4
AwayKoutnik50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr4Koutnik6n = 10Koutnik took 6 of 10
S2Jr4Koutnik6n = 10Koutnik took 6 of 10
S3Jr2Koutnik8n = 10Koutnik took 8 of 10
S4Jr5Koutnik4n = 9Jr took 5 of 9
S5Jr2Koutnik2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrKoutnikJ − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.243.2−5.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrKoutnikBasisWin rate · lifetime249 / 534 vs 172 / 35946.6%47.9%249 / 534 vs 172 / 359Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoutnikJr 2.25/Koutnik 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.1%
Koutnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 18:25A. Jr355101281V. Koutnik44111210113
WSep 8 · 16:25A. Jr4471114123V. Koutnik4011712101
LAug 26 · 13:25A. Jr32119661V. Koutnik4291111113
LAug 20 · 11:25A. Jr246990V. Koutnik331111113
LAug 10 · 18:00A. Jr4811891192V. Koutnik50911118113
LAug 10 · 16:50A. Jr3411711142V. Koutnik49911117113
WJul 17 · 18:29A. Jr48713611113V. Koutnik50111111892
WJul 17 · 16:55A. Jr43511511113V. Koutnik4411811682
LJun 26 · 18:35A. Jr371011971V. Koutnik3712311113
LJun 26 · 16:25A. Jr371191071V. Koutnik4391112113
A. Jr10
LSep 19 · 18:30A. Jr2.105111191V. Koutnik1.6511138113WSep 19 · 15:55J. Cousin1.4451113972A. Jr2.631191111113LSep 19 · 15:25C. Kratochvil1.73129118113A. Jr2.00101181192LSep 18 · 13:55L. Rek1.501211113A. Jr2.4510660WSep 18 · 12:20P. Kubat2.6310820A. Jr1.441211113LSep 18 · 11:50L. Rek1.5711114113A. Jr2.25681181WSep 18 · 10:50A. Jr1.73121511113T. Jr2.001017671LSep 15 · 17:20A. Jr1.801378101T. Jr1.91111111123LSep 15 · 16:50A. Jr1.835740T. Rein1.831111113WSep 15 · 15:20T. Jr2.00101112962A. Jr1.731291011113
V. Koutnik10
WSep 19 · 18:30A. Jr2.105111191V. Koutnik1.6511138113WSep 19 · 16:25V. Koutnik1.4411711113C. Kratochvil2.63911951WSep 19 · 14:55J. Cousin1.9151150V. Koutnik1.801113113WSep 18 · 14:00V. Koutnik1.801311113O. Knazik1.9011840WSep 18 · 12:55P. Vodal2.38511891V. Koutnik1.5311111113WSep 18 · 12:25O. Knazik1.571061191V. Koutnik2.2512119113LSep 18 · 11:25V. Koutnik2.10712781S. Holik1.67111011113WSep 16 · 13:59V. Koutnik1.6111115113T. Rein2.20951181WSep 16 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.61118711113T. Rein2.2051111572LSep 16 · 11:55V. Koutnik2.2515118362S. Holik1.571381111113
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