TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13156173
Played Sep 19Finished
Jonas Kulveit
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119711119811113
Adam Kral
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:49 and never touched — 57.9% is still 57.9%
Graded at full timeJonas Kulveit to win
57.9%
57.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJonas Kulveit above · Adam Kral below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 91 set 5, 11-3 — our read held Jonas Kulveit at 57.9%
91 points played in total.
H2H Jonas Kulveit 12–7 Adam Kral Adam Kral has won 7 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:49What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kulveit
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-7 in 19
Kulveit
Correct
gap of 5 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kulveit 1528 vs Kral 1492
Kulveit
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kulveit 80% vs Kral 60%
Kulveit
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kulveit 60% vs Kral 40%
Kulveit
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kulveit +2 · Kral +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kulveit) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kulveit form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKulveit 1.80 / Kral 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kulveit)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13156173
Kulveit1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite48% won 15 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it75% 12 of 16
Kral1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 87 of 198
Down 0–1, comes back26% 27 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKulveit6wins
AwayKral4wins
7 of 10 to a deciderKulveit leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKulveit75%3 of 4
AwayKral50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kulveit4Kral6n = 10Kral took 6 of 10
S2Kulveit5Kral5n = 10split evenly
S3Kulveit5Kral5n = 10split evenly
S4Kulveit6Kral3n = 9Kulveit took 6 of 9
S5Kulveit4Kral3n = 7Kulveit took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKulveitKralKulveit − KralBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match44.943.8+1.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKulveitKralBasisWin rate · lifetime150 / 299 vs 408 / 78050.2%52.3%150 / 299 vs 408 / 780Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.940.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KulveitKulveit 1.80/Kral 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kulveit · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kulveit won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 06:55J. Kulveit48117118113A. Kral4391191132
WAug 15 · 06:55J. Kulveit521461011113A. Kral48121112852
WJul 12 · 11:55J. Kulveit4514811123A. Kral3812115101
WJul 6 · 16:55J. Kulveit4281111123A. Kral361187101
WJun 28 · 18:00J. Kulveit511011118113A. Kral4312771162
LJun 28 · 14:55J. Kulveit3861151152A. Kral43115115113
WJun 13 · 09:55J. Kulveit48811711113A. Kral4411411992
LJun 13 · 08:55J. Kulveit47410151172A. Kral561112139113
LMay 23 · 08:55J. Kulveit50111171292A. Kral49761114113
LApr 26 · 16:20J. Kulveit2861480A. Kral381116113
J. Kulveit10
WSep 19 · 07:55J. Kulveit1.6714117113J. Dvorak2.101291151WAug 30 · 14:28D. Tichy1.531110711102J. Kulveit2.38712113123WAug 30 · 12:55Z. Zahradka1.919470J. Kulveit1.801111113LAug 30 · 12:25D. Tichy1.611111113J. Kulveit2.204570WAug 30 · 11:25J. Kulveit2.251310116113J. Melichar1.57111231192WAug 28 · 18:00J. Kulveit1.83511147113M. Dvorak1.83118121182LAug 28 · 16:55J. Kulveit2.00481191D. Tichy1.7311119113LAug 28 · 15:55J. Kulveit1.50811361J. Dvorak2.50111111113WAug 28 · 14:55J. Kulveit1.9111412113M. Dvorak1.807111091LAug 21 · 18:50J. Kulveit1.802760J. Melichar1.911111113
A. Kral10
WSep 17 · 14:09A. Kral1.501411113L. Moravec2.5012840LSep 17 · 12:55M. Filipek1.731111143A. Kral2.0096120LSep 17 · 12:25F. Marat1.83128145123A. Kral1.8310111211102WSep 17 · 11:25A. Kral1.5311713113L. Moravec2.384111181WSep 15 · 13:55P. Moravec1.5011871192A. Kral2.50811117113LSep 15 · 13:25A. Kral2.10611881P. Moravec1.6711511113LSep 15 · 11:55D. Sochor2.50115711113A. Kral1.5091111892LSep 15 · 11:25P. Chlumsky1.83121212113A. Kral1.8310101471LSep 14 · 10:35M. Filipek1.80148811113A. Kral1.90121111982WSep 14 · 09:25F. Marat2.009111101A. Kral1.7311911123
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