TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13146856
Played Sep 17Finished
Adam Kral
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1412118114––––
Ladislav Moravec
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
How it is goingAdam Kral above · Ladislav Moravec below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 60 set 3, 11-4
60 points played in total.
H2H Adam Kral 11–2 Ladislav Moravec Ladislav Moravec has won 2 of their 13 meetings.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Kral)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKral 1.50 / Moravec 2.50
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Kral)+3.5pp
TT Cup · #13146856
Kral1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite58% won 48 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it72% 33 of 46
Moravec2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 30 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back18% 7 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKral9wins
AwayMoravec1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKral leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKral87.5%7 of 8
AwayMoravecn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kral8Moravec2n = 10Kral took 8 of 10
S2Kral5Moravec5n = 10split evenly
S3Kral8Moravec2n = 10Kral took 8 of 10
S4Kral7Moravec1n = 8Kral took 7 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKralMoravecK − MBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.737.1+5.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKralMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime408 / 783 vs 114 / 26952.1%42.4%408 / 783 vs 114 / 269Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.637.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KralKral 1.50/Moravec 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66%
Kral · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kral won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 11:25A. Kral4211713113L. Moravec344111181
WSep 11 · 15:25A. Kral3912511113L. Moravec361011781
WSep 9 · 11:25A. Kral52121712113L. Moravec4810151491
WSep 1 · 17:55A. Kral5310111011113L. Moravec4412812392
LSep 1 · 15:50A. Kral49117118122L. Moravec51611911143
WAug 4 · 16:00A. Kral4111613113L. Moravec376111191
WAug 4 · 13:59A. Kral4111613113L. Moravec376111191
WAug 4 · 11:55A. Kral341111123L. Moravec2688100
WJul 9 · 16:25A. Kral4071111113L. Moravec30112891
WJun 5 · 13:23A. Kral361411113L. Moravec2812790
A. Kral10
LSep 17 · 12:55M. Filipek1.731111143A. Kral2.0096120LSep 17 · 12:25F. Marat1.83128145123A. Kral1.8310111211102WSep 17 · 11:25A. Kral1.5311713113L. Moravec2.384111181WSep 15 · 13:55P. Moravec1.5011871192A. Kral2.50811117113LSep 15 · 13:25A. Kral2.10611881P. Moravec1.6711511113LSep 15 · 11:55D. Sochor2.50115711113A. Kral1.5091111892LSep 15 · 11:25P. Chlumsky1.83121212113A. Kral1.8310101471LSep 14 · 10:35M. Filipek1.80148811113A. Kral1.90121111982WSep 14 · 09:25F. Marat2.009111101A. Kral1.7311911123LSep 14 · 08:25A. Kral2.00913761M. Filipek1.73111111113
L. Moravec10
LSep 17 · 13:25L. Moravec1.4011451172F. Marat2.75811119113LSep 17 · 11:55M. Filipek1.801111412113L. Moravec1.91139111062LSep 17 · 11:25A. Kral1.5311713113L. Moravec2.384111181LSep 11 · 17:55L. Moravec1.3097130D. Sochor3.401111153LSep 11 · 16:55M. Dvorak1.57491111113L. Moravec2.2511114752WSep 11 · 16:25D. Sochor1.675680L. Moravec2.101111113LSep 11 · 15:25L. Moravec2.201011781A. Kral1.6112511113WSep 10 · 18:00J. Hendrych1.65111161252L. Moravec2.10661114113WSep 10 · 16:20L. Moravec2.001211113M. Dolezal1.7310860LSep 10 · 15:20L. Moravec2.25511281J. Hendrych1.5711211113
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