TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13143544
Played Sep 17Finished
Ladislav Moravec
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118411511119711
Filip Marat
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:13 and never touched — 69.2% is still 69.2%
Graded at full timeLadislav Moravec to win
69.2%
69.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLadislav Moravec above · Filip Marat below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 88 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Ladislav Moravec at 69.2%
88 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Moravec 12–7 Filip Marat Filip Marat has won 7 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:13What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Moravec
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-7 in 19
Moravec
Wrong
gap of 5 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1526 vs Marat 1459
Moravec
Wrong
both rated, 67 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 20% vs Marat 40%
Marat
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 40% vs Marat 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec -4 · Marat +1
Moravec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Moravec) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (20%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 1.40 / Marat 2.75
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Moravec)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13143544
Moravec1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 24 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it73% 19 of 26
Marat2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 45 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back39% 25 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back22% 7 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoravec8wins
AwayMarat2wins
Moravec leads 8–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravec85.7%6 of 7
AwayMarat33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec7Marat3n = 10Moravec took 7 of 10
S2Moravec9Marat1n = 10Moravec took 9 of 10
S3Moravec8Marat2n = 10Moravec took 8 of 10
S4Moravec2Marat2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoravecMaratMoravec − MaratBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match34.826.4+8.4per matchSweeps60+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecMaratBasisWin rate · lifetime114 / 268 vs 234 / 52442.5%44.7%114 / 268 vs 234 / 524Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecMoravec 1.40/Marat 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.7%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Marat won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 19 · 14:35L. Moravec341111123F. Marat2688100
WAug 19 · 13:25L. Moravec4281112113F. Marat351161081
WJul 27 · 10:55L. Moravec331111113F. Marat142750
LJun 2 · 12:25L. Moravec351175121F. Marat3931111143
WMar 12 · 13:55L. Moravec331111113F. Marat236980
WMar 11 · 12:25L. Moravec3851111113F. Marat34115991
WFeb 27 · 12:25L. Moravec331111113F. Marat195950
LDec 4 · 11:00L. Moravec34811871F. Marat3611311113
WDec 4 · 09:55L. Moravec331111113F. Marat179350
WDec 2 · 11:05L. Moravec331111113F. Marat217590
L. Moravec10
LSep 17 · 14:09A. Kral1.501411113L. Moravec2.5012840LSep 17 · 11:55M. Filipek1.801111412113L. Moravec1.91139111062LSep 17 · 11:25A. Kral1.5311713113L. Moravec2.384111181LSep 11 · 17:55L. Moravec1.3097130D. Sochor3.401111153LSep 11 · 16:55M. Dvorak1.57491111113L. Moravec2.2511114752WSep 11 · 16:25D. Sochor1.675680L. Moravec2.101111113LSep 11 · 15:25L. Moravec2.201011781A. Kral1.6112511113WSep 10 · 18:00J. Hendrych1.65111161252L. Moravec2.10661114113WSep 10 · 16:20L. Moravec2.001211113M. Dolezal1.7310860LSep 10 · 15:20L. Moravec2.25511281J. Hendrych1.5711211113
F. Marat10
WSep 17 · 12:25F. Marat1.83128145123A. Kral1.8310111211102LSep 14 · 10:05F. Marat2.104780R. Muller1.651111113LSep 14 · 09:25F. Marat2.009111101A. Kral1.7311911123WSep 14 · 07:55R. Muller1.61810111162F. Marat2.20111292113WSep 14 · 07:25M. Filipek1.8311851162F. Marat1.83911114113LAug 19 · 14:35L. Moravec1.441111123F. Marat2.6388100LAug 19 · 13:25F. Marat2.501161081L. Moravec1.5081112113WAug 19 · 11:55M. Filipek2.101411111032F. Marat1.671281312113WAug 19 · 11:25R. Jamrich1.83111581182F. Marat1.831313117113LJul 31 · 10:24F. Marat1.901110141172M. Tlusty1.80512167113
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