TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155782
Played Sep 19Finished
Dmytro Palii
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1012118118119––
Taras Gil
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:48 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeTaras Gil to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmytro Palii above · Taras Gil below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 80 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Taras Gil at 62.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Palii 3–4 Taras Gil Dmytro Palii has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:48What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Gil
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Palii 1533 vs Gil 1586
Gil
Wrong
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Palii 80% vs Gil 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Palii 60% vs Gil 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Palii +1 · Gil +3
Gil
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Gil) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gil form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPalii 2.38 / Gil 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Gil)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13155782
Palii2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 17 of 36
Down 0–1, comes back35% 7 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Gil1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 12) · back after a break
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 41 of 70
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it78% 32 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomePalii3wins
AwayGil4wins
1 of 7 to a deciderGil leads 4–3, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePaliin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayGil60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Palii2Gil5n = 7Gil took 5 of 7
S2Palii3Gil4n = 7Gil took 4 of 7
S3Palii4Gil3n = 7Palii took 4 of 7
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away343%
These 7 meetings
MetricPaliiGilP − GBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match24.630.4−5.8per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPaliiGilBasisWin rate · lifetime108 / 187 vs 127 / 22157.8%57.5%108 / 187 vs 127 / 221Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GilPalii 2.38/Gil 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.2%
Gil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Palii won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 12 · 04:25D. Palii1911530T. Gil351311113
WSep 11 · 01:45D. Palii331111113T. Gil229850
LFeb 22 · 05:25D. Palii94500T. Gil331111113
WDec 6 · 12:55D. Palii4181111113T. Gil26116181
LNov 15 · 17:55D. Palii2112900T. Gil361411113
D. Palii10
WSep 19 · 01:22M. Slozka1.281191371D. Palii3.5041115113LSep 19 · 24:15D. Palii2.00122881M. Slozka1.73101111113WSep 18 · 23:15O. Sydorchuk2.201211911112D. Palii1.61149115133WSep 18 · 22:15S. Prus2.101141061D. Palii1.6751112113WSep 18 · 20:45V. Korobko1.7313119141D. Palii2.0015711163LSep 12 · 10:25D. Palii1.57121165132S. Prus2.251081111153LSep 12 · 08:55D. Palii1.67111110882V. Kuzmych2.10371211113WSep 12 · 07:25D. Palii1.8351112113D. Maltsev1.831131041WSep 12 · 05:55D. Palii2.2581111113M. Slozka1.57114971LSep 12 · 04:25D. Palii2.0011530T. Gil1.731311113
T. Gil10
LSep 19 · 13:25S. Prus3.0011119103T. Gil1.36741151WSep 12 · 10:55V. Kuzmych2.209511111T. Gil1.6111119133WSep 12 · 09:55M. Slozka2.0012911852T. Gil1.731011711113WSep 12 · 08:25S. Prus3.007711101T. Gil1.3611119123LSep 12 · 06:25D. Maltsev2.25111211113T. Gil1.57814781WSep 12 · 04:25D. Palii2.0011530T. Gil1.731311113WSep 11 · 02:45S. Prus3.0011911652T. Gil1.36911611113LSep 11 · 01:45D. Palii2.501111113T. Gil1.509850WSep 11 · 24:15O. Sydorchuk2.639030T. Gil1.441111113WSep 10 · 22:15I. Fashchevskyi2.7589121192T. Gil1.401111108113
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