TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116651
Played Sep 12Finished
Dmytro Palii
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12101186115111315
Serhii Prus
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:25 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeDmytro Palii to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmytro Palii above · Serhii Prus below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 13-15
Point 102 set 5, 13-15 — our read held Dmytro Palii at 59.3%
102 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Palii 9–7 Serhii Prus Serhii Prus has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:25What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Palii
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-7 in 16
Palii
Wrong
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Palii 1503 vs Prus 1372
Palii
Wrong
both rated, 131 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Palii 60% vs Prus 20%
Palii
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Palii 50% vs Prus 10%
Palii
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Palii -1 · Prus -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Palii) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Prus form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPalii 1.57 / Prus 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Palii)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13116651
Palii1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite40% won 8 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it67% 6 of 9
Prus2.25
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 41 of 109
Down 0–1, comes back22% 13 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back17% 6 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePalii7wins
AwayPrus3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPalii leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePalii85.7%6 of 7
AwayPrus66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Palii7Prus3n = 10Palii took 7 of 10
S2Palii6Prus4n = 10Palii took 6 of 10
S3Palii4Prus6n = 10Prus took 6 of 10
S4Palii5Prus1n = 6Palii took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPaliiPrusPalii − PrusBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match35.234.9+0.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPaliiPrusBasisWin rate · lifetime106 / 185 vs 198 / 42057.3%47.1%106 / 185 vs 198 / 420Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.135.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PaliiPalii 1.57/Prus 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.1%
Palii · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Prus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 17:55D. Palii—1111143S. Prus—87120
WSep 10 · 23:45D. Palii—111197113S. Prus—85111162
LJul 4 · 10:25D. Palii—5830S. Prus—1111113
WJul 3 · 14:55D. Palii—11112113S. Prus—6111051
WJun 30 · 04:25D. Palii—51311113S. Prus—1111891
LJun 29 · 11:55D. Palii—7570S. Prus—1111113
LJun 18 · 08:25D. Palii—117121152S. Prus—911144113
WFeb 21 · 14:25D. Palii—1311593S. Prus—1171171
WFeb 15 · 11:25D. Palii—12115113S. Prus—1071161
WFeb 8 · 09:25D. Palii—1211113S. Prus—10960
D. Palii10
LSep 12 · 08:55D. Palii1.67111110882V. Kuzmych2.10371211113WSep 12 · 07:25D. Palii1.8351112113D. Maltsev1.831131041WSep 12 · 05:55D. Palii2.2581111113M. Slozka1.57114971LSep 12 · 04:25D. Palii2.0011530T. Gil1.731311113WSep 11 · 17:55S. Prus2.0087120D. Palii1.731111143LSep 11 · 16:55D. Palii2.2541111652M. Slozka1.57118911113LSep 11 · 15:55D. Palii1.7371141152D. Maltsev2.00118118113WSep 11 · 14:25D. Palii1.6711119113V. Kuzmych2.10761161WSep 11 · 12:25D. Palii2.10121265163I. Fashchevskyi1.6710101111142LSep 11 · 03:15I. Fashchevskyi1.731111113D. Palii2.007970
S. Prus10
LSep 12 · 09:25S. Prus3.255450D. Maltsev1.331111113LSep 12 · 08:25S. Prus3.007711101T. Gil1.3611119123WSep 12 · 06:55S. Prus1.8311115113V. Kuzmych1.83781131LSep 12 · 04:55S. Prus2.63113114122M. Slozka1.44311711143LSep 11 · 17:55S. Prus2.0087120D. Palii1.731111143LSep 11 · 16:25S. Prus1.80129661V. Kuzmych1.91101111113LSep 11 · 14:55S. Prus2.637101181M. Slozka1.4411128113LSep 11 · 13:25S. Prus2.00561151I. Fashchevskyi1.7311114113LSep 11 · 11:55S. Prus3.4011411882D. Maltsev1.30911811113LSep 11 · 02:45S. Prus3.0011911652T. Gil1.36911611113
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