TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116561
Played Sep 12Finished
Serhii Prus
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 9Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 9
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1133111174111214
Mykola Slozka
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:53 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeMykola Slozka to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Prus above · Mykola Slozka below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 12-14
Point 87 set 5, 12-14 — our read held Mykola Slozka at 66.1%
87 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Prus 9–11 Mykola Slozka Serhii Prus has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 14h before this match
Slozka beat Prus 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:53What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Slozka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-11 in 20
Slozka
Correct
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Prus 1377 vs Slozka 1616
Slozka
Correct
both rated, 239 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Prus 0% vs Slozka 100%
Slozka
Correct
100pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Prus 10% vs Slozka 90%
Slozka
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Prus -5 · Slozka +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Slozka) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Slozka form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPrus 2.63 / Slozka 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Slozka)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13116561
Prus2.63
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 9
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 41 of 109
Down 0–1, comes back22% 13 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back17% 6 of 36
Slozka1.44
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 74 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it83% 39 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it78% 60 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePrus2wins
AwaySlozka8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSlozka leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePrus25%1 of 4
AwaySlozka83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Prus4Slozka6n = 10Slozka took 6 of 10
S2Prus1Slozka9n = 10Slozka took 9 of 10
S3Prus6Slozka4n = 10Prus took 6 of 10
S4Prus2Slozka7n = 9Slozka took 7 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPrusSlozkaP − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.541.3−5.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPrusSlozkaBasisWin rate · lifetime197 / 416 vs 345 / 76847.4%44.9%197 / 416 vs 345 / 768Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SlozkaPrus 2.63/Slozka 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.1%
Slozka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Slozka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 14:55S. Prus—7101181M. Slozka—11128113
LSep 11 · 24:45S. Prus—111381M. Slozka—91111113
WSep 6 · 10:25S. Prus—111211113M. Slozka—814881
LSep 5 · 13:25S. Prus—571151M. Slozka—11115113
LSep 4 · 21:45S. Prus—10911101M. Slozka—12118123
LAug 2 · 05:55S. Prus—11611892M. Slozka—711911113
LAug 1 · 14:25S. Prus—5670M. Slozka—1111103
LJul 31 · 23:15S. Prus—1011851M. Slozka—12911113
LJun 27 · 05:55S. Prus—1161251M. Slozka—81114113
WFeb 21 · 15:55S. Prus—9111111103M. Slozka—11134862
S. Prus10
LSep 11 · 17:55S. Prus2.0087120D. Palii1.731111143LSep 11 · 16:25S. Prus1.80129661V. Kuzmych1.91101111113LSep 11 · 14:55S. Prus2.637101181M. Slozka1.4411128113LSep 11 · 13:25S. Prus2.00561151I. Fashchevskyi1.7311114113LSep 11 · 11:55S. Prus3.4011411882D. Maltsev1.30911811113LSep 11 · 02:45S. Prus3.0011911652T. Gil1.36911611113LSep 11 · 24:45M. Slozka1.5091111113S. Prus2.50111381LSep 10 · 23:45S. Prus1.8385111162D. Palii1.83111197113LSep 10 · 22:45O. Sydorchuk2.00101111123S. Prus1.731299101WSep 10 · 21:15S. Prus2.10115138113I. Fashchevskyi1.67811111182
M. Slozka10
WSep 11 · 18:55M. Slozka1.731171110113I. Fashchevskyi2.0091151292WSep 11 · 16:55D. Palii2.2541111652M. Slozka1.57118911113WSep 11 · 14:55S. Prus2.637101181M. Slozka1.4411128113WSep 11 · 13:55M. Slozka2.631112113D. Maltsev1.4461080WSep 11 · 12:55V. Kuzmych2.00111213562M. Slozka1.737141111113LSep 11 · 02:15M. Slozka1.441111101142O. Sydorchuk2.63137125113WSep 11 · 24:45M. Slozka1.5091111113S. Prus2.50111381WSep 10 · 23:15M. Slozka1.73134119113I. Fashchevskyi2.00111151142WSep 10 · 21:45M. Slozka1.8311119113D. Palii1.83681131WSep 10 · 20:15M. Slozka2.201111113T. Gil1.619990
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