TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116766
Played Sep 12Finished
Serhii Prus
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511411511––––
Denys Maltsev
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:43 and never touched — 77.2% is still 77.2%
Graded at full timeDenys Maltsev to win
77.2%
77.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Prus above · Denys Maltsev below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 47 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Denys Maltsev at 77.2%
47 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Prus 8–40 Denys Maltsev Serhii Prus has won 8 of their 48 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:43What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Maltsev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-40 in 48
Maltsev
Correct
gap of 32 in 48, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Prus 1384 vs Maltsev 1451
Maltsev
Correct
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Prus 20% vs Maltsev 40%
Maltsev
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Prus 10% vs Maltsev 40%
Maltsev
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Prus -1 · Maltsev -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Maltsev) · live re-read · sealed at 77% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maltsev form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPrus 3.25 / Maltsev 1.33
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Maltsev)+4.3pp
Setka Cup · #13116766
Prus3.25
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 41 of 109
Down 0–1, comes back22% 13 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back17% 6 of 36
Maltsev1.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 118 of 215
Up 2–0, closes it86% 75 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it73% 93 of 127
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePrus2wins
AwayMaltsev8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMaltsev leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePrusn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMaltsev75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Prus2Maltsev8n = 10Maltsev took 8 of 10
S2Prus3Maltsev7n = 10Maltsev took 7 of 10
S3Prus4Maltsev6n = 10Maltsev took 6 of 10
S4Prus3Maltsev4n = 7Maltsev took 4 of 7
S5Prus2Maltsev3n = 5Maltsev took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPrusMaltsevP − MBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match36.340.1−3.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPrusMaltsevBasisWin rate · lifetime198 / 419 vs 456 / 88947.3%51.3%198 / 419 vs 456 / 889Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaltsevPrus 3.25/Maltsev 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.2%
Maltsev · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Maltsev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 11:55S. Prus—11411882D. Maltsev—911811113
LJun 27 · 07:25S. Prus—75111172D. Maltsev—111185113
LFeb 15 · 05:25S. Prus—811971D. Maltsev—11911113
WFeb 1 · 08:25S. Prus—611115113D. Maltsev—11641182
LJan 28 · 06:55S. Prus—11891162D. Maltsev—611117113
LJan 27 · 13:25S. Prus—6860D. Maltsev—1111113
LJan 18 · 06:55S. Prus—9760D. Maltsev—1111113
LJan 10 · 05:25S. Prus—7690D. Maltsev—1111113
WJan 9 · 14:25S. Prus—9111311113D. Maltsev—11515582
LJan 3 · 08:25S. Prus—981191D. Maltsev—11111113
S. Prus10
LSep 12 · 08:25S. Prus3.007711101T. Gil1.3611119123WSep 12 · 06:55S. Prus1.8311115113V. Kuzmych1.83781131LSep 12 · 04:55S. Prus2.63113114122M. Slozka1.44311711143LSep 11 · 17:55S. Prus2.0087120D. Palii1.731111143LSep 11 · 16:25S. Prus1.80129661V. Kuzmych1.91101111113LSep 11 · 14:55S. Prus2.637101181M. Slozka1.4411128113LSep 11 · 13:25S. Prus2.00561151I. Fashchevskyi1.7311114113LSep 11 · 11:55S. Prus3.4011411882D. Maltsev1.30911811113LSep 11 · 02:45S. Prus3.0011911652T. Gil1.36911611113LSep 11 · 24:45M. Slozka1.5091111113S. Prus2.50111381
D. Maltsev10
LSep 12 · 07:25D. Palii1.8351112113D. Maltsev1.831131041WSep 12 · 06:25D. Maltsev2.25111211113T. Gil1.57814781WSep 12 · 05:25V. Kuzmych1.733320D. Maltsev2.001111113LSep 11 · 18:25V. Kuzmych2.00611114133D. Maltsev1.73117711112LSep 11 · 17:25I. Fashchevskyi1.91111198113D. Maltsev1.8088111192WSep 11 · 15:55D. Palii1.7371141152D. Maltsev2.00118118113LSep 11 · 13:55M. Slozka2.631112113D. Maltsev1.4461080WSep 11 · 11:55S. Prus3.4011411882D. Maltsev1.30911811113LSep 9 · 10:35D. Maltsev1.8311152972M. Potapov1.838131111113LSep 9 · 09:05D. Maltsev1.91511871Y. Tebenko1.8011511113
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