TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111226
Played Sep 11Finished
Ivan Fashchevskyi
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118118911811119
Denys Maltsev
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDenys Maltsev to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Fashchevskyi above · Denys Maltsev below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 97 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Denys Maltsev at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Fashchevskyi 26–26 Denys Maltsev Dead even across their 52 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:45What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Maltsev
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-26 in 52
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fashchevskyi 1429 vs Maltsev 1467
Maltsev
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fashchevskyi 60% vs Maltsev 40%
Fashchevskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fashchevskyi 30% vs Maltsev 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fashchevskyi +2 · Maltsev +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Maltsev)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maltsev form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFashchevskyi 1.91 / Maltsev 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Maltsev)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13111226
Fashchevskyi1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog45% won 87 of 193
Down 0–1, comes back26% 25 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 46
Maltsev1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 117 of 211
Up 2–0, closes it86% 75 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it74% 93 of 126
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFashchevskyi4wins
AwayMaltsev6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMaltsev leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFashchevskyi66.7%4 of 6
AwayMaltsev100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fashchevskyi6Maltsev4n = 10Fashchevskyi took 6 of 10
S2Fashchevskyi4Maltsev6n = 10Maltsev took 6 of 10
S3Fashchevskyi4Maltsev6n = 10Maltsev took 6 of 10
S4Fashchevskyi3Maltsev5n = 8Maltsev took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFashchevskyiMaltsevF − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.338.5−2.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFashchevskyiMaltsevBasisWin rate · lifetime285 / 567 vs 454 / 88450.3%51.4%285 / 567 vs 454 / 884Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaltsevFashchevskyi 1.91/Maltsev 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Maltsev · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Fashchevskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 04:35I. Fashchevskyi—111151212D. Maltsev—671114113
WSep 7 · 23:15I. Fashchevskyi—11811113D. Maltsev—411971
LAug 31 · 10:05I. Fashchevskyi—1111281D. Maltsev—13611113
LAug 30 · 01:30I. Fashchevskyi—811591D. Maltsev—11811113
WAug 28 · 20:15I. Fashchevskyi—1181211113D. Maltsev—81114582
WAug 26 · 04:35I. Fashchevskyi—1111113D. Maltsev—8550
LAug 25 · 13:05I. Fashchevskyi—3960D. Maltsev—1111113
WAug 25 · 03:00I. Fashchevskyi—121017113D. Maltsev—10121581
LAug 21 · 03:15I. Fashchevskyi—861121D. Maltsev—11118113
LAug 19 · 06:35I. Fashchevskyi—119791D. Maltsev—71111113
I. Fashchevskyi10
WSep 11 · 15:25V. Kuzmych2.10148511102I. Fashchevskyi1.671211116123WSep 11 · 13:25S. Prus2.00561151I. Fashchevskyi1.7311114113LSep 11 · 12:25D. Palii2.10121265163I. Fashchevskyi1.6710101111142WSep 11 · 03:15I. Fashchevskyi1.731111113D. Palii2.007970LSep 11 · 01:15O. Sydorchuk2.101615117113I. Fashchevskyi1.67141761192LSep 10 · 23:15M. Slozka1.73134119113I. Fashchevskyi2.00111151142LSep 10 · 22:15I. Fashchevskyi2.7589121192T. Gil1.401111108113LSep 10 · 21:15S. Prus2.10115138113I. Fashchevskyi1.67811111182LSep 9 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.671111123I. Fashchevskyi2.1064100LSep 9 · 10:05O. Storozhenko1.6712611113I. Fashchevskyi2.101011481
D. Maltsev10
LSep 11 · 18:25V. Kuzmych2.00611114133D. Maltsev1.73117711112WSep 11 · 15:55D. Palii1.7371141152D. Maltsev2.00118118113LSep 11 · 13:55M. Slozka2.631112113D. Maltsev1.4461080WSep 11 · 11:55S. Prus3.4011411882D. Maltsev1.30911811113LSep 9 · 10:35D. Maltsev1.8311152972M. Potapov1.838131111113LSep 9 · 09:05D. Maltsev1.91511871Y. Tebenko1.8011511113LSep 9 · 07:35D. Maltsev2.25411861I. Pytsko1.5711811113WSep 9 · 06:05D. Maltsev2.10135411113O. Storozhenko1.67111111972WSep 9 · 04:35D. Maltsev1.80671114113I. Fashchevskyi1.91111151212LSep 8 · 19:05D. Maltsev2.007750O. Storozhenko1.731111113
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