TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111391
Played Sep 11Finished
Volodymyr Kuzmych
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
14128115111161012
Ivan Fashchevskyi
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:22 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeIvan Fashchevskyi to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Kuzmych above · Ivan Fashchevskyi below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 100 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Ivan Fashchevskyi at 55.8%
100 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Kuzmych 1–2 Ivan Fashchevskyi Volodymyr Kuzmych has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:22What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Fashchevskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kuzmych 1432 vs Fashchevskyi 1407
Kuzmych
Wrong
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kuzmych 40% vs Fashchevskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kuzmych 40% vs Fashchevskyi 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kuzmych -2 · Fashchevskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Fashchevskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fashchevskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKuzmych 2.10 / Fashchevskyi 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Fashchevskyi)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13111391
Kuzmych2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 12 of 26
Down 0–1, comes back27% 4 of 15
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Fashchevskyi1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite51% won 83 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it84% 26 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it78% 56 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKuzmych1wins
AwayFashchevskyi2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderFashchevskyi leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kuzmych1Fashchevskyi2n = 3Fashchevskyi took 2 of 3
S2Kuzmych1Fashchevskyi2n = 3Fashchevskyi took 2 of 3
S3Kuzmych1Fashchevskyi2n = 3Fashchevskyi took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricKuzmychFashchevskyiK − FBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match40.346.0−5.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKuzmychFashchevskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime33 / 79 vs 284 / 56641.8%50.2%33 / 79 vs 284 / 566Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FashchevskyiKuzmych 2.10/Fashchevskyi 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Fashchevskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Fashchevskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 4 · 22:45V. Kuzmych—4930I. Fashchevskyi—1111113
LJul 25 · 08:55V. Kuzmych—1011171462I. Fashchevskyi—1291912113
WJul 24 · 18:55V. Kuzmych—12911153I. Fashchevskyi—10118131
V. Kuzmych10
LSep 11 · 14:25D. Palii1.6711119113V. Kuzmych2.10761161LSep 11 · 12:55V. Kuzmych2.00111213562M. Slozka1.737141111113WSep 6 · 10:55V. Kuzmych1.57761111113R. Bihun2.2511118532LSep 6 · 08:55M. Slozka1.731111816113V. Kuzmych2.0097111842WSep 6 · 07:55V. Kuzmych1.531112117113O. Sydorchuk2.3821481192LSep 6 · 06:55S. Prus1.83111120113V. Kuzmych1.83882271WSep 6 · 05:25V. Kuzmych2.631111113T. Gil1.446950LSep 5 · 02:15S. Prus2.00117119123V. Kuzmych1.73811811102WSep 5 · 01:15V. Kuzmych1.911211113O. Sydorchuk1.8010890LSep 5 · 24:15V. Kuzmych2.20711491T. Gil1.6111611113
I. Fashchevskyi10
WSep 11 · 13:25S. Prus2.00561151I. Fashchevskyi1.7311114113LSep 11 · 12:25D. Palii2.10121265163I. Fashchevskyi1.6710101111142WSep 11 · 03:15I. Fashchevskyi1.731111113D. Palii2.007970LSep 11 · 01:15O. Sydorchuk2.101615117113I. Fashchevskyi1.67141761192LSep 10 · 23:15M. Slozka1.73134119113I. Fashchevskyi2.00111151142LSep 10 · 22:15I. Fashchevskyi2.7589121192T. Gil1.401111108113LSep 10 · 21:15S. Prus2.10115138113I. Fashchevskyi1.67811111182LSep 9 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.671111123I. Fashchevskyi2.1064100LSep 9 · 10:05O. Storozhenko1.6712611113I. Fashchevskyi2.101011481WSep 9 · 08:35M. Potapov1.8381161172I. Fashchevskyi1.83115117113
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