TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116589
Played Sep 12Finished
Dmytro Palii
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
5111131210114––
Denys Maltsev
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:04 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeDmytro Palii to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Palii above · Denys Maltsev below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 67 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Dmytro Palii at 54.7%
67 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Palii 8–8 Denys Maltsev Dead even across their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:04What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Maltsev
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-8 in 16
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Palii 1508 vs Maltsev 1451
Palii
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Palii 40% vs Maltsev 60%
Maltsev
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Palii 60% vs Maltsev 40%
Palii
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Palii +1 · Maltsev +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Maltsev) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Palii form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPalii 1.83 / Maltsev 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Maltsev)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13116589
Palii1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Maltsev1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePalii6wins
AwayMaltsev4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPalii leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePalii100%3 of 3
AwayMaltsev57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Palii3Maltsev7n = 10Maltsev took 7 of 10
S2Palii6Maltsev4n = 10Palii took 6 of 10
S3Palii5Maltsev5n = 10split evenly
S4Palii5Maltsev0n = 5Palii took 5 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPaliiMaltsevP − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.234.9−1.7per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPaliiMaltsevBasisWin rate · lifetime106 / 184 vs 456 / 88957.6%51.3%106 / 184 vs 456 / 889Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaltsevPalii 1.83/Maltsev 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Maltsev · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Palii won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 07:25D. Palii—51112113D. Maltsev—1131041
LSep 11 · 15:55D. Palii—71141152D. Maltsev—118118113
WJun 13 · 05:55D. Palii—91111113D. Maltsev—119891
WJun 12 · 12:55D. Palii—1111113D. Maltsev—6560
WJun 12 · 01:45D. Palii—2112113D. Maltsev—191070
LFeb 15 · 09:25D. Palii—8310D. Maltsev—1111113
WFeb 14 · 15:55D. Palii—121114113D. Maltsev—1461261
LDec 28 · 08:25D. Palii—6550D. Maltsev—1111113
WDec 27 · 14:25D. Palii—1110111123D. Maltsev—512119102
LDec 26 · 14:55D. Palii—5550D. Maltsev—111193
D. Palii10
WSep 12 · 05:55D. Palii2.2581111113M. Slozka1.57114971LSep 12 · 04:25D. Palii2.0011530T. Gil1.731311113WSep 11 · 17:55S. Prus2.0087120D. Palii1.731111143LSep 11 · 16:55D. Palii2.2541111652M. Slozka1.57118911113LSep 11 · 15:55D. Palii1.7371141152D. Maltsev2.00118118113WSep 11 · 14:25D. Palii1.6711119113V. Kuzmych2.10761161WSep 11 · 12:25D. Palii2.10121265163I. Fashchevskyi1.6710101111142LSep 11 · 03:15I. Fashchevskyi1.731111113D. Palii2.007970WSep 11 · 01:45D. Palii2.501111113T. Gil1.509850WSep 10 · 23:45S. Prus1.8385111162D. Palii1.83111197113
D. Maltsev10
WSep 12 · 06:25D. Maltsev2.25111211113T. Gil1.57814781WSep 12 · 05:25V. Kuzmych1.733320D. Maltsev2.001111113LSep 11 · 18:25V. Kuzmych2.00611114133D. Maltsev1.73117711112LSep 11 · 17:25I. Fashchevskyi1.91111198113D. Maltsev1.8088111192WSep 11 · 15:55D. Palii1.7371141152D. Maltsev2.00118118113LSep 11 · 13:55M. Slozka2.631112113D. Maltsev1.4461080WSep 11 · 11:55S. Prus3.4011411882D. Maltsev1.30911811113LSep 9 · 10:35D. Maltsev1.8311152972M. Potapov1.838131111113LSep 9 · 09:05D. Maltsev1.91511871Y. Tebenko1.8011511113LSep 9 · 07:35D. Maltsev2.25411861I. Pytsko1.5711811113
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