TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13157030
Played Sep 19Finished
Mykola Slozka
Home
1.29
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1149111315711––
Dmytro Palii
Away
3.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingMykola Slozka above · Dmytro Palii below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 81 set 4, 7-11
81 points played in total.
H2H Mykola Slozka 7–4 Dmytro Palii Dmytro Palii has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Slozka beat Palii 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Slozka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Palii form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSlozka 1.28 / Palii 3.50
Signal prob.74% / 26%
Edge (Slozka)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13157030
Slozka1.28
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 65 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it85% 34 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it81% 52 of 64
Palii3.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 15 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back32% 6 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSlozka7wins
AwayPalii3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSlozka leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSlozka66.7%4 of 6
AwayPalii25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Slozka6Palii4n = 10Slozka took 6 of 10
S2Slozka5Palii5n = 10split evenly
S3Slozka5Palii5n = 10split evenly
S4Slozka5Palii4n = 9Slozka took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSlozkaPaliiS − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.035.1+3.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSlozkaPaliiBasisWin rate · lifetime337 / 758 vs 107 / 18644.5%57.5%337 / 758 vs 107 / 186Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SlozkaSlozka 1.28/Palii 3.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
74.3%
Slozka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Palii won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 19 · 24:15M. Slozka43101111113D. Palii30122881
LSep 12 · 05:55M. Slozka31114971D. Palii4181111113
WSep 11 · 16:55M. Slozka50118911113D. Palii3741111652
WSep 10 · 21:45M. Slozka4211119113D. Palii28681131
WJun 13 · 07:25M. Slozka331111113D. Palii239590
LJun 12 · 13:55M. Slozka24114451D. Palii4181111113
WJun 11 · 23:45M. Slozka50911118113D. Palii4011831172
LFeb 21 · 19:55M. Slozka30481171D. Palii3311110113
WFeb 15 · 07:55M. Slozka48111313113D. Palii438151191
M. Slozka10
WSep 19 · 24:15D. Palii2.00122881M. Slozka1.73101111113WSep 18 · 22:45V. Korobko2.0011111091M. Slozka1.7391312113WSep 18 · 21:15S. Prus2.509540M. Slozka1.501111113WSep 18 · 20:15O. Sydorchuk2.2573100M. Slozka1.571111123LSep 12 · 11:25D. Maltsev1.5791111113M. Slozka2.25115771LSep 12 · 09:55M. Slozka2.0012911852T. Gil1.731011711113LSep 12 · 07:55V. Kuzmych2.00491811113M. Slozka1.73111116862LSep 12 · 05:55D. Palii2.2581111113M. Slozka1.57114971WSep 12 · 04:55S. Prus2.63113114122M. Slozka1.44311711143WSep 11 · 18:55M. Slozka1.731171110113I. Fashchevskyi2.0091151292
D. Palii10
LSep 19 · 24:15D. Palii2.00122881M. Slozka1.73101111113WSep 18 · 23:15O. Sydorchuk2.201211911112D. Palii1.61149115133WSep 18 · 22:15S. Prus2.101141061D. Palii1.6751112113WSep 18 · 20:45V. Korobko1.7313119141D. Palii2.0015711163LSep 12 · 10:25D. Palii1.57121165132S. Prus2.251081111153LSep 12 · 08:55D. Palii1.67111110882V. Kuzmych2.10371211113WSep 12 · 07:25D. Palii1.8351112113D. Maltsev1.831131041WSep 12 · 05:55D. Palii2.2581111113M. Slozka1.57114971LSep 12 · 04:25D. Palii2.0011530T. Gil1.731311113WSep 11 · 17:55S. Prus2.0087120D. Palii1.731111143
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