TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155655
Played Sep 19Finished
Vladyslav Kovalchuk
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
11713111210––––
Ruslan Novak
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:28 and never touched — 59.6% is still 59.6%
Graded at full timeRuslan Novak to win
59.6%
59.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVladyslav Kovalchuk above · Ruslan Novak below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 64 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Ruslan Novak at 59.6%
64 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Kovalchuk 21–52 Ruslan Novak Vladyslav Kovalchuk has won 21 of their 73 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:28What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Novak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-52 in 73
Novak
Wrong
gap of 31 in 73, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1536 vs Novak 1503
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 60% vs Novak 40%
Kovalchuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 40% vs Novak 20%
Kovalchuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk -1 · Novak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Novak) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novak form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 2.38 / Novak 1.53
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Novak)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13155655
Kovalchuk2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 98 of 226
Down 0–1, comes back22% 24 of 111
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 54
Novak1.53
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 13)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 89 of 161
Up 2–0, closes it93% 54 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it74% 66 of 89
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk6wins
AwayNovak4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk83.3%5 of 6
AwayNovak75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk6Novak4n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S2Kovalchuk8Novak2n = 10Kovalchuk took 8 of 10
S3Kovalchuk5Novak5n = 10split evenly
S4Kovalchuk3Novak3n = 6split evenly
S5Kovalchuk1Novak2n = 3Novak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukNovakK − NBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.535.6+0.9per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukNovakBasisWin rate · lifetime370 / 770 vs 263 / 50348.1%52.3%370 / 770 vs 263 / 503Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovakKovalchuk 2.38/Novak 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.2%
Novak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 16:35V. Kovalchuk3711114113R. Novak37891191
WSep 12 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk4291111113R. Novak36117991
LAug 9 · 16:35V. Kovalchuk177730R. Novak331111113
LAug 2 · 24:30V. Kovalchuk4011511852R. Novak48611911113
LJul 13 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk351011771R. Novak4112711113
WJul 11 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk331111113R. Novak186660
WJul 6 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk401111183R. Novak3059160
LJul 5 · 13:05V. Kovalchuk4161261162R. Novak491110116113
WJun 22 · 08:05V. Kovalchuk47111195113R. Novak3993111152
WJun 21 · 15:35V. Kovalchuk331111113R. Novak259880
V. Kovalchuk10
LSep 19 · 02:00I. Fashchevskyi2.751111115113V. Kovalchuk1.4076131192WSep 19 · 01:00V. Kovalchuk1.33111011113D. Maltsev3.25312991WSep 19 · 24:00V. Kovalchuk1.571111143I. Pytsko2.2599120WSep 18 · 22:30V. Kovalchuk1.80915119113O. Budnikov1.91111311162LSep 18 · 20:30V. Kovalchuk1.8311811972O. Storozhenko1.83911811113LSep 14 · 11:05V. Kovalchuk2.106470Y. Vorsuliak1.671111113WSep 14 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.5059111172V. Kovalchuk2.50111172113LSep 14 · 08:05V. Kovalchuk2.6391111782O. Rodin1.44119911113LSep 14 · 07:05M. Khomenko1.73171111113V. Kovalchuk2.001513371LSep 14 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk1.67135641Y. Tebenko2.10111111113
R. Novak10
WSep 13 · 18:05R. Novak2.2581114113Y. Kolos1.571121291LSep 13 · 16:35R. Novak1.53891191V. Kovalchuk2.3811114113WSep 13 · 15:05R. Novak1.831461110113Y. Parahailo1.83121191292LSep 13 · 13:35R. Novak1.8091111882M. Khomenko1.91116711113LSep 13 · 12:05R. Novak2.636680O. Rodin1.441111113LSep 13 · 03:00R. Novak2.631178101O. Rodin1.4491111123LSep 13 · 01:00M. Khomenko2.001111113R. Novak1.739570LSep 12 · 23:00Y. Tebenko2.10151111113R. Novak1.671313771LSep 12 · 22:00R. Novak1.8061110101Y. Parahailo1.9111512123LSep 12 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk2.5091111113R. Novak1.50117991
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