TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13149293
Played Sep 18Finished
Vladyslav Kovalchuk
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111513111911116
Oleksandr Budnikov
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Budnikov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVladyslav Kovalchuk above · Oleksandr Budnikov below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 11-1
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 97 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Oleksandr Budnikov at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Kovalchuk 20–17 Oleksandr Budnikov Oleksandr Budnikov has won 17 of their 37 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 22:38What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kovalchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-17 in 37
Kovalchuk
Correct
gap of 3 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1510 vs Budnikov 1567
Budnikov
Wrong
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 20% vs Budnikov 60%
Budnikov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 20% vs Budnikov 60%
Budnikov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk -2 · Budnikov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Budnikov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.80 / Budnikov 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Budnikov)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13149293
Kovalchuk1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 79 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it88% 30 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it76% 56 of 74
Budnikov1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog38% won 44 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back22% 14 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk3wins
AwayBudnikov7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBudnikov leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk60%3 of 5
AwayBudnikov100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk5Budnikov5n = 10split evenly
S2Kovalchuk3Budnikov7n = 10Budnikov took 7 of 10
S3Kovalchuk4Budnikov6n = 10Budnikov took 6 of 10
S4Kovalchuk3Budnikov4n = 7Budnikov took 4 of 7
S5Kovalchuk2Budnikov3n = 5Budnikov took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukBudnikovK − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.540.2−1.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukBudnikovBasisWin rate · lifetime367 / 766 vs 219 / 52247.9%42%367 / 766 vs 219 / 522Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.536.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BudnikovKovalchuk 1.80/Budnikov 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Budnikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 28 · 18:05V. Kovalchuk32881151O. Budnikov4111118113
WJul 28 · 02:00V. Kovalchuk50118811123O. Budnikov40711111102
WJul 6 · 11:05V. Kovalchuk331111113O. Budnikov207760
LJul 5 · 15:35V. Kovalchuk4711991172O. Budnikov45311119113
WJul 4 · 22:30V. Kovalchuk531181112113O. Budnikov4591151462
LJun 15 · 10:35V. Kovalchuk2891180O. Budnikov351113113
LJun 14 · 16:35V. Kovalchuk25410110O. Budnikov361112133
LJun 13 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk45111061172O. Budnikov47412119113
LMar 30 · 08:35V. Kovalchuk281011341O. Budnikov3912511113
LMar 29 · 14:35V. Kovalchuk4451213682O. Budnikov5411101111113
V. Kovalchuk10
LSep 18 · 20:30V. Kovalchuk1.8311811972O. Storozhenko1.83911811113LSep 14 · 11:05V. Kovalchuk2.106470Y. Vorsuliak1.671111113WSep 14 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.5059111172V. Kovalchuk2.50111172113LSep 14 · 08:05V. Kovalchuk2.6391111782O. Rodin1.44119911113LSep 14 · 07:05M. Khomenko1.73171111113V. Kovalchuk2.001513371LSep 14 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk1.67135641Y. Tebenko2.10111111113LSep 13 · 18:35V. Kovalchuk2.63471131O. Rodin1.4411119113WSep 13 · 16:35R. Novak1.53891191V. Kovalchuk2.3811114113LSep 13 · 15:35V. Kovalchuk1.837860M. Khomenko1.83111193LSep 13 · 14:35Y. Kolos1.83913814123V. Kovalchuk1.8311111112102
O. Budnikov10
LSep 18 · 23:30O. Budnikov2.3811771192O. Storozhenko1.53511113113LSep 18 · 21:00O. Budnikov1.6758111172D. Maltsev2.10111138113WSep 4 · 17:55D. Maltsev1.918111091O. Budnikov1.8011712113WSep 4 · 16:55O. Budnikov1.571111113I. Pytsko2.257950LSep 4 · 15:55O. Budnikov2.381111115112O. Storozhenko1.53471311133WSep 4 · 14:25O. Budnikov2.101211133Y. Tebenko1.67108110WSep 4 · 12:25O. Budnikov1.61111146113M. Potapov2.2077111152WSep 4 · 02:45O. Budnikov1.731111113M. Potapov2.004880LSep 4 · 24:45O. Storozhenko1.5711911113O. Budnikov2.25411721WSep 3 · 23:45O. Budnikov1.5711911113I. Fashchevskyi2.25911541
Upcoming Matches
V. Kovalchuk
Sep 19 · 01:00V. Kovalchuk1.33D. Maltsev3.25—Sep 19 · 02:00V. Kovalchuk1.40I. Fashchevskyi2.75—Sep 19 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk2.38R. Novak1.53—Sep 19 · 22:30V. Kovalchuk2.10M. Khomenko1.67—Sep 19 · 23:30V. Kovalchuk2.63Y. Parahailo1.44—Sep 20 · 24:30V. Kovalchuk1.73Y. Tebenko2.00—Sep 20 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk2.10D. Shchegelskyi1.67—
O. Budnikov
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