TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122288
Played Sep 13Finished
Ruslan Novak
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811911114911––
Vladyslav Kovalchuk
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:22 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeRuslan Novak to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRuslan Novak above · Vladyslav Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 74 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Ruslan Novak at 64.1%
74 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Novak 52–20 Vladyslav Kovalchuk Vladyslav Kovalchuk has won 20 of their 72 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:22What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Novak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
52-20 in 72
Novak
Wrong
gap of 32 in 72, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novak 1470 vs Kovalchuk 1506
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novak 20% vs Kovalchuk 0%
Novak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novak 20% vs Kovalchuk 10%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Novak +1 · Kovalchuk -5
Kovalchuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Novak) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (0%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovak 1.53 / Kovalchuk 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Novak)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13122288
Novak1.53
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 95 of 168
Up 2–0, closes it94% 58 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it75% 70 of 94
Kovalchuk2.38
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 98 of 223
Down 0–1, comes back24% 26 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovak5wins
AwayKovalchuk5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovak80%4 of 5
AwayKovalchuk80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novak5Kovalchuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Novak3Kovalchuk7n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S3Novak5Kovalchuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Novak3Kovalchuk2n = 5Novak took 3 of 5
S5Novak2Kovalchuk1n = 3Novak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovakKovalchukN − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.535.1+0.4per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovakKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime262 / 501 vs 373 / 78552.3%47.5%262 / 501 vs 373 / 785Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovakNovak 1.53/Kovalchuk 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.4%
Novak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 21:00R. Novak36117991V. Kovalchuk4291111113
WAug 9 · 16:35R. Novak331111113V. Kovalchuk177730
WAug 2 · 24:30R. Novak48611911113V. Kovalchuk4011511852
WJul 13 · 05:35R. Novak4112711113V. Kovalchuk351011771
LJul 11 · 21:00R. Novak186660V. Kovalchuk331111113
LJul 6 · 05:35R. Novak3059160V. Kovalchuk401111183
WJul 5 · 13:05R. Novak491110116113V. Kovalchuk4161261162
LJun 22 · 08:05R. Novak3993111152V. Kovalchuk47111195113
LJun 21 · 15:35R. Novak259880V. Kovalchuk331111113
WJun 20 · 21:00R. Novak361111143V. Kovalchuk2365120
R. Novak10
WSep 13 · 15:05R. Novak1.831461110113Y. Parahailo1.83121191292LSep 13 · 13:35R. Novak1.8091111882M. Khomenko1.91116711113LSep 13 · 12:05R. Novak2.636680O. Rodin1.441111113LSep 13 · 03:00R. Novak2.631178101O. Rodin1.4491111123LSep 13 · 01:00M. Khomenko2.001111113R. Novak1.739570LSep 12 · 23:00Y. Tebenko2.10151111113R. Novak1.671313771LSep 12 · 22:00R. Novak1.8061110101Y. Parahailo1.9111512123LSep 12 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk2.5091111113R. Novak1.50117991WSep 12 · 03:15R. Novak1.53111511113O. Storozhenko2.38917771LSep 12 · 01:15Y. Tebenko2.2081111113R. Novak1.61114661
V. Kovalchuk10
LSep 13 · 15:35V. Kovalchuk1.837860M. Khomenko1.83111193LSep 13 · 14:35Y. Kolos1.83913814123V. Kovalchuk1.8311111112102LSep 13 · 13:05V. Kovalchuk2.50591181Y. Parahailo1.5011117113LSep 13 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk2.501110451Y. Parahailo1.5071211113LSep 13 · 24:30Y. Tebenko2.20261111113V. Kovalchuk1.6111115872LSep 12 · 23:30V. Kovalchuk2.5061180O. Rodin1.501113113LSep 12 · 22:30M. Khomenko1.91111186113V. Kovalchuk1.8056111162WSep 12 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk2.5091111113R. Novak1.50117991LAug 24 · 11:05V. Kovalchuk1.9112116101Y. Vorsuliak1.8014711123LAug 24 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.571111113V. Kovalchuk2.258570
Upcoming Matches
R. Novak
Nothing scheduled
V. Kovalchuk
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.