TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116991
Played Sep 13Finished
Yaroslav Tebenko
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
211611115118117
Vladyslav Kovalchuk
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:13 and never touched — 55.9% is still 55.9%
Graded at full timeVladyslav Kovalchuk to win
55.9%
55.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYaroslav Tebenko above · Vladyslav Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 83 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Vladyslav Kovalchuk at 55.9%
83 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Tebenko 35–39 Vladyslav Kovalchuk Yaroslav Tebenko has won 35 of their 74 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:13What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kovalchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
35-39 in 74
Kovalchuk
Wrong
gap of 4 in 74, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tebenko 1668 vs Kovalchuk 1550
Tebenko
Correct
both rated, 118 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tebenko 60% vs Kovalchuk 20%
Tebenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tebenko 60% vs Kovalchuk 30%
Tebenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tebenko +1 · Kovalchuk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kovalchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTebenko 2.20 / Kovalchuk 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13116991
Tebenko2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 123 of 256
Down 0–1, comes back31% 43 of 137
Down 0–2, comes back12% 9 of 75
Kovalchuk1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite67% won 82 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it91% 32 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it76% 58 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTebenko2wins
AwayKovalchuk8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTebenko25%1 of 4
AwayKovalchuk83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tebenko4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S2Tebenko1Kovalchuk9n = 10Kovalchuk took 9 of 10
S3Tebenko4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S4Tebenko2Kovalchuk5n = 7Kovalchuk took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricTebenkoKovalchukT − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.538.6−5.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTebenkoKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime400 / 827 vs 373 / 78148.4%47.8%400 / 827 vs 373 / 781Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukTebenko 2.20/Kovalchuk 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.5%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Tebenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 24:30Y. Tebenko41261111113V. Kovalchuk4211115872
LAug 19 · 07:05Y. Tebenko2385100V. Kovalchuk341111123
LAug 18 · 16:35Y. Tebenko381115661V. Kovalchuk4341711113
LAug 14 · 22:30Y. Tebenko45911113112V. Kovalchuk50119611133
LAug 5 · 07:05Y. Tebenko33691171V. Kovalchuk3811115113
LAug 4 · 18:35Y. Tebenko247980V. Kovalchuk331111113
WAug 4 · 02:30Y. Tebenko4111811113V. Kovalchuk28811721
LJul 29 · 09:35Y. Tebenko1910450V. Kovalchuk341211113
LJul 28 · 16:35Y. Tebenko31117581V. Kovalchuk3961111113
LJul 28 · 24:30Y. Tebenko4011101451V. Kovalchuk4561216113
Y. Tebenko10
WSep 12 · 23:00Y. Tebenko2.10151111113R. Novak1.671313771LSep 12 · 21:30Y. Tebenko2.508830O. Rodin1.501111113WSep 12 · 20:00Y. Tebenko1.831111113Y. Parahailo1.837470LSep 12 · 02:15M. Potapov1.80821111113Y. Tebenko1.9111118992WSep 12 · 01:15Y. Tebenko2.2081111113R. Novak1.61114661LSep 12 · 24:15Y. Tebenko2.007570I. Pytsko1.731111113LSep 11 · 22:45Y. Tebenko1.738750V. Korobko2.001111113WSep 11 · 20:45Y. Tebenko1.9111513113O. Storozhenko1.807111181WSep 9 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.671111123I. Fashchevskyi2.1064100WSep 9 · 09:05D. Maltsev1.91511871Y. Tebenko1.8011511113
V. Kovalchuk10
LSep 12 · 23:30V. Kovalchuk2.5061180O. Rodin1.501113113LSep 12 · 22:30M. Khomenko1.91111186113V. Kovalchuk1.8056111162WSep 12 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk2.5091111113R. Novak1.50117991LAug 24 · 11:05V. Kovalchuk1.9112116101Y. Vorsuliak1.8014711123LAug 24 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.571111113V. Kovalchuk2.258570LAug 24 · 08:05V. Kovalchuk2.259380O. Rodin1.571111113LAug 24 · 07:05M. Khomenko2.101111133V. Kovalchuk1.6764110WAug 24 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk1.911511113O. Storozhenko1.8013660LAug 23 · 17:35V. Kovalchuk2.001014581Y. Vorsuliak1.73121211113WAug 23 · 15:35Y. Vorsuliak1.738940V. Kovalchuk2.001111113
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